Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Avispa Fukuoka v Urawa Red Diamonds

Inicio: 2026-09-02 10:03 UTC

Final: Avispa Fukuoka 2–3 Urawa Red Diamonds

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Avispa Fukuoka (Local)

Predicción 34.06%2.94momio equitativo
EV +0.809%
Ventaja +0.273%
Kelly +0.413%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.26%34.21%34.03%37.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.682.652.9640.00%37.29%37.74%33.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Urawa Red Diamonds (Visitante)

Predicción 36.16%2.77momio equitativo
EV +3.05%
Ventaja +1.07%
Kelly +1.65%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.24%35.99%36.31%37.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.582.602.8541.67%38.83%38.46%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.78%3.36momio equitativo
EV -1.71%
Ventaja -0.518%
Kelly -0.744%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.70%29.80%29.66%31.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.063.053.3034.48%32.69%32.79%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Avispa Fukuoka (Local): 34.06%; Urawa Red Diamonds (Visitante): 36.16%; Empate: 29.78%. Para Urawa Red Diamonds (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.77. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.05%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -13.15%E -5.16%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV +3.05%E +1.07%K +1.65%G +0.050%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 09:25
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -0.565%E -0.205%K -0.323%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -3.20%E -0.984%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -2.37%E -0.879%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 09:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -2.37%E -0.879%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 09:20
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.23%EV -3.62%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.42%EV -3.82%E -1.44%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.35%EV -1.71%E -0.518%K -0.744%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-02 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 09:20
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.59%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 09:20
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -13.15%E -5.16%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -4.18%E -1.58%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 09:20
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.54%EV -0.554%E -0.190%K -0.288%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.99%EV -4.54%E -1.72%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -10.05%E -3.33%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -11.45%E -4.40%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -4.90%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 09:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -11.45%E -4.40%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -4.90%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 09:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -11.45%E -4.40%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -4.90%E -1.86%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 09:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.26%EV +0.809%E +0.273%K +0.413%G +0.003%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.44%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.26%EV +0.809%E +0.273%K +0.413%G +0.003%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.44%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 09:55
BetAnything🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.26%EV +0.809%E +0.273%K +0.413%G +0.003%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.44%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.30%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 09:55
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -11.45%E -4.40%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -5.27%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 09:55
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 09:55
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 09:24
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -8.26%E -2.68%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 09:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -14.86%E -5.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -7.80%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 09:20
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -7.80%E -3.06%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 09:50
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.66%EV -7.37%E -2.71%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.33%EV -8.88%E -3.52%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 09:20
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.66%EV -7.37%E -2.71%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.33%EV -8.88%E -3.52%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -9.16%E -3.00%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 09:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.41%EV -12.47%E -4.85%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.09%EV -8.88%E -3.52%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.62%E -4.70%K -7.17%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 09:53
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.69%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 09:45
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 09:35
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 09:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.05%E -2.98%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 09:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 09:55
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -10.77%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-02 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -4.64%E -1.66%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:50
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -6.34%E -2.31%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 09:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -6.18%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.73%EV -9.75%E -3.68%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 09:35
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:45
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -10.43%E -3.97%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -10.77%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-02 09:45
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -10.77%E -4.11%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.65%E -3.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-02 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -11.45%E -4.40%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -13.22%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -7.67%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 09:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.04%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-09-02 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.60%0.9%2026-09-02 09:55
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.99%1.0%2026-09-02 09:55
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-02 09:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-09-02 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.80%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91%1.3%2026-09-02 09:55