Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.06
assuming max odds 3.93
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virtus Entella (Local): 46.44%; Padova (Visit): 25.14%; Draw: 28.43%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.93, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.34%E -2.11%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 17:48 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -4.80%E -2.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 13:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.80%E -2.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-20 01:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -5.27%E -2.58%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.76%EV -5.73%E -2.82%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -3.35%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.82%EV -6.19%E -3.07%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 10:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.82%EV -6.19%E -3.07%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 10:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -6.19%E -3.07%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -6.19%E -3.07%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -6.19%E -3.07%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -10.76%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.32%EV -6.66%E -3.31%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.20%EV -1.21%E -0.309%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -5.06%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 13:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -3.35%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 13:03 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 11:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.85%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.59%EV -4.23%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.56%EV -6.77%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 02:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-22 13:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 23:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 11:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 11:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 11:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.12%E -3.56%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 17:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.13%EV -8.05%E -4.07%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -3.98%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.45%EV -6.77%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 02:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -8.05%E -4.07%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 12:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -8.52%E -4.32%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -8.98%E -4.58%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 13:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -8.98%E -4.58%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 23:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-21 08:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 08:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.99%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-21 08:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -4.48%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 13:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-22 12:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-21 13:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-20 01:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-20 01:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.45%E -4.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-20 01:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -9.91%E -5.11%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-23 01:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.21%EV -10.37%E -5.38%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-23 13:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -10.37%E -5.38%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -13.30%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-20 00:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -11.30%E -5.92%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-20 06:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -11.30%E -5.92%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-22 13:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.27%EV -11.30%E -5.92%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -18.14%E -6.30%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-22 13:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.60%EV -11.77%E -6.19%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-23 13:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.77%EV -12.70%E -6.75%K -14.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.48%EV -18.31%E -5.63%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.76%EV -11.88%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-23 01:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.84%EV -14.09%E -7.62%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -12.02%E -3.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.41%EV -13.30%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-23 06:44 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 01:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.71% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56% | 10.9% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 37.23% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 13.25% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 49.52% | 96.1% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 37.23% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 13.25% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 49.52% | 96.1% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 36.87% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 13.12% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.01% | 98.0% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |