Language:English
Virtus Entella v Modena
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Virtus Entella (Local)
Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV +0.895%
Edge +0.248%
Kelly +0.343%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.33%27.89%27.97%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.333.353.6132.79%30.00%29.85%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Modena (Visit)
Prediction 41.31%2.42fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.69%41.37%41.32%43.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.202.3550.00%45.32%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.74%3.25fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.509%
Kelly -0.740%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%30.75%30.72%32.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.983.003.2038.46%33.51%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virtus Entella (Local): 27.95%; Modena (Visit): 41.31%; Draw: 30.74%. For Virtus Entella (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.895%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.79%EV +0.895%E +0.248%K +0.343%G +0.003% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.50%EV -3.75%E -1.61%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.71%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -1.06%E -0.300%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.23%E -2.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -6.85%E -2.26%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.623%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -3.33%E -1.42%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -2.18%E -0.623%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -3.33%E -1.42%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 18:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -2.18%E -0.623%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -9.31%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-03 18:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -2.18%E -0.623%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -9.12%E -4.14%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -11.60%E -5.42%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -3.58%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.51%EV -8.29%E -3.73%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -3.86%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.62%EV -7.47%E -3.33%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -8.39%E -2.82%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.24%EV -4.57%E -1.98%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -12.42%E -5.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.43%EV -9.12%E -4.14%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.76%EV -11.77%E -4.10%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-03 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.91%EV -12.42%E -5.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.91%EV -12.42%E -5.86%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-03 18:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.24%EV -2.92%E -1.24%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-03 18:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.83%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.21%EV -14.08%E -6.77%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 18:16 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -1.63%E -0.509%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 18:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-03 18:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.12%E -4.14%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-03 18:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.04%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.98%EV -8.39%E -2.82%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.04%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.98%EV -8.39%E -2.82%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.77%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.12%E -4.14%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.92%E -4.97%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-03 18:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -9.17%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -4.16%E -1.79%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 18:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -9.17%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.39%E -4.35%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-03 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.17%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.72%EV -10.01%E -3.11%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.51%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-03 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.78%E -2.59%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-03 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -4.99%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -9.12%E -4.14%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -4.70%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-03 18:54 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -11.18%E -5.20%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-03 18:31 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.16%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-03 18:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -7.05%E -3.13%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.24%E -2.05%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-03 18:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.65%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 41.41%EV -14.49%E -7.00%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 30.94%EV -14.85%E -5.36%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-03-03 18:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.72%EV -13.36%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.42%EV -17.38%E -8.69%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 31.86%EV -20.07%E -7.72%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 20.7% | 2026-03-03 18:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.54%EV -14.76%E -4.84%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.45%EV -13.25%E -6.31%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -10.85%E -3.74%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-03-03 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.27% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-03-03 18:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-03-03 18:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84% | 1.3% | 2026-03-03 18:50 |