La escuela de los momios

Virtus Entella v Carrarese

Inicio: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: Virtus Entella 2–1 Carrarese

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Virtus Entella (Local)

Predicción 50.18%1.99momio equitativo
EV -3.66%
Ventaja -1.91%
Kelly -3.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.43%50.26%50.18%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.631.801.821.9261.35%55.57%54.95%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Carrarese (Visitante)

Predicción 22.19%4.51momio equitativo
EV +3.42%
Ventaja +0.733%
Kelly +0.934%
Crecimiento +0.032%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.42%22.11%22.14%23.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.214.204.6626.67%23.73%23.81%21.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.63%3.62momio equitativo
EV +0.848%
Ventaja +0.232%
Kelly +0.320%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.42%27.62%27.67%30.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.373.353.6533.33%29.68%29.85%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.91I 52.36%NM 50.29%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.61%EV +3.42%E +0.733%K +0.934%G +0.032%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-08 18:20
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -13.19%E -7.63%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV +0.848%E +0.232%K +0.320%G +0.003%7.4%2026-05-08 18:24
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -13.19%E -7.63%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV +0.848%E +0.232%K +0.320%G +0.003%7.4%2026-05-08 18:20
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -13.69%E -7.96%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV +0.848%E +0.232%K +0.320%G +0.003%7.8%2026-05-08 18:19
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:24
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:20
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -14.20%E -8.30%K -19.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 18:19
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -14.70%E -8.65%K -21.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -0.134%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -0.533%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:20
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -1.24%E -0.279%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -8.27%E -2.49%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 18:25
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -11.19%E -6.32%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -2.35%E -0.535%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 18:19
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 49.40%EV -6.17%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -2.35%E -0.535%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.61%EV -13.80%E -4.42%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 18:24
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 53.91%EV -15.70%E -9.35%K -23.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -2.35%E -0.535%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.751%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 18:20
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 53.91%EV -15.70%E -9.35%K -23.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -2.35%E -0.535%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.751%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 18:24
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 54.05%EV -16.20%E -9.70%K -24.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -2.35%E -0.535%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.751%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:24
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.78%EV -3.24%E -0.743%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.51%EV -7.99%E -2.40%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 18:19
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -3.91%E -0.902%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 18:14
Codere (IT)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.32%EV -5.16%E -2.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 18:15
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -4.16%E -2.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 18:14
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.17%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 18:04
BetOnline.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -3.66%E -1.91%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:24
LowVig.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -3.66%E -1.91%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:23
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 54.01%EV -18.21%E -11.17%K -28.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-08 18:20
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.66%E -2.45%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.67%E -3.01%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 18:14
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:05
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:25
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 18:19
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -12.19%E -6.96%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:20
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 50.05%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -7.90%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:14
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.05%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%EV -7.90%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:14
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -6.17%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 18:20
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.17%E -3.30%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Right1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 18:20
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.17%E -4.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:14
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:14
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:14
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 18:14
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -4.66%E -2.45%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -17.11%E -5.70%K -8.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 18:25
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:04
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-08 18:04
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.68%E -5.38%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-08 18:25
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -12.19%E -6.96%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-08 18:20
NetBet (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.01%EV -13.19%E -7.63%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.36%EV -15.73%E -5.16%K -7.67%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-08 18:15
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.13%EV -10.68%E -6.00%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.42%EV -11.67%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-08 18:15
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.10%EV -8.68%E -4.77%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -12.34%E -3.12%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 18:14
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -8.68%E -4.77%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 49.89%EV -12.69%E -7.29%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.55%EV -14.56%E -3.78%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.56%EV -12.97%E -4.12%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-08 18:14
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.17%E -3.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -15.67%E -4.12%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.88%EV -11.69%E -6.64%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -15.67%E -4.12%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-08 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.07%EV -13.19%E -7.63%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -16.78%E -4.47%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -17.11%E -5.70%K -8.56%G +0.000%17.8%2026-05-08 18:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.09%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-05-08 18:24
Smarkets1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-05-08 18:24