Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Spezia

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 43.14%2.32fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.90%43.12%43.20%44.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.102.2150.00%47.27%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spezia (Visit)

Prediction 29.75%3.36fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.14%29.66%29.75%30.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.113.103.2535.71%32.11%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.11%3.69fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.671%
Kelly -0.928%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%27.22%27.04%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.303.6033.33%30.00%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 43.14%; Spezia (Visit): 29.75%; Draw: 27.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -2.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.23%EV -4.66%E -2.11%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.91%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 19:39
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 14:40
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.28%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.97%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 19:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 01:14
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -5.96%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -5.96%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:50
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 09:48
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 10:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 01:14
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 09:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:04
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 19:34
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 19:34
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 16:35
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 01:14
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 14:40
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 16:35
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.78%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.39%EV -7.29%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:09
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 22:26
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -7.29%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:05
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.30%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -7.17%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 22:08
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 12:54
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-20 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-20 00:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -12.23%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 19:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.84%EV -10.00%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 19:41
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 19:34
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.71%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-21 16:40
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -12.00%E -5.88%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-20 00:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-20 00:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.44%EV -12.23%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-23 22:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -16.69%E -5.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-23 19:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -14.31%E -4.97%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -18.68%E -6.23%K -9.34%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-23 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 43.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.09%4.0%2026-04-23 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:05
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%7.6%2026-04-23 23:50