La escuela de los momios

US Catanzaro 1929 v Spezia

Inicio: 2026-04-25 10:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Predicción 43.14%2.32momio equitativo
EV -4.66%
Ventaja -2.11%
Kelly -3.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.90%43.12%43.20%44.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.102.2150.00%47.27%47.62%45.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Spezia (Visitante)

Predicción 29.75%3.36momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -1.02%
Kelly -1.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.14%29.66%29.75%30.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.113.103.2535.71%32.11%32.26%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.11%3.69momio equitativo
EV -2.41%
Ventaja -0.671%
Kelly -0.928%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.24%27.22%27.04%28.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.303.6033.33%30.00%30.30%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 43.23%EV -4.66%E -2.11%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.91%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 19:39
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 14:40
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 43.28%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.97%EV -4.31%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:05
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 19:35
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 01:14
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:29
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:29
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -5.96%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:49
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -5.96%E -2.73%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:50
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 09:48
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 10:40
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 01:14
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 09:29
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 22:04
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 19:34
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 19:34
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 16:35
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 01:14
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 14:40
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 16:35
1xBet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.78%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.39%EV -7.29%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:09
Bovada2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 22:26
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -7.68%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 22:04
Marathon Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -7.29%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:05
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 43.30%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -7.17%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 22:08
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 12:54
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-22 09:30
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -10.27%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-20 00:10
LiveScore Bet2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-20 00:10
Virgin Bet2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -10.70%E -5.17%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-20 00:10
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -12.23%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 19:34
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.84%EV -10.00%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 19:41
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.74%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 19:34
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -13.71%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-21 16:40
LeoVegas2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -12.00%E -5.88%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-20 00:10
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-20 00:09
NetBet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.44%EV -12.23%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -13.26%E -4.14%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-23 22:03
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -16.69%E -5.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-23 19:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -14.31%E -4.97%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -18.68%E -6.23%K -9.34%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-23 12:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 43.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.09%4.0%2026-04-23 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%4.4%2026-04-23 22:05
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%7.6%2026-04-23 23:50