Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Frosinone

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.748%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.89%35.13%35.31%36.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.592.602.8042.55%38.66%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frosinone (Visit)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.807%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.78%35.82%35.82%36.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.602.7543.48%39.04%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.934%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%29.05%28.88%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.203.3534.48%31.53%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 35.23%; Frosinone (Visit): 35.85%; Draw: 28.92%. For US Catanzaro 1929 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.16%EV -1.35%E -0.481%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -1.41%E -0.514%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.06%EV -10.94%E -3.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.16%EV -1.35%E -0.481%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -1.41%E -0.514%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.06%EV -10.94%E -3.55%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.69%EV -1.70%E -0.609%K -0.949%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.45%EV -2.13%E -0.780%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -6.31%E -1.95%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 13:54
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 13:39
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 08:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-01 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.62%EV -5.22%E -1.94%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.54%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.84%EV -9.78%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 13:44
Bovada🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.50%EV -5.93%E -2.22%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.29%EV -6.43%E -2.46%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -11.80%E -3.87%K -5.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 13:45
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.76%EV -6.28%E -2.36%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.76%EV -4.64%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -3.42%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 13:54
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 34.71%EV -6.28%E -2.36%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 13:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -3.13%E -0.934%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 09:09
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 12:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 10:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 09:09
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 08:39
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.99%EV -7.51%E -2.91%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 09:09
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.99%EV -7.51%E -2.91%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 09:09
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-01 08:30
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 13:39
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 13:38
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 13:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 13:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 13:39
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 12:04
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.17%E -4.97%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 08:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.17%E -4.97%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 08:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.17%E -4.97%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-01 08:39
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:15
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 13:14
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -6.79%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-01 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-25 16:30
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 12:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-01 13:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.33%EV -10.86%E -4.29%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -12.17%E -4.97%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.19%EV -8.33%E -2.63%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-01 13:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-25 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -8.58%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-25 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-01 09:09
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-26 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-01 12:04
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-01 12:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -13.96%E -5.82%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-01 13:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.95%EV -13.96%E -5.82%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.55%EV -15.56%E -5.33%K -8.11%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-01 10:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -13.68%E -5.58%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -13.96%E -5.82%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -8.91%E -2.83%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-01 09:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -15.44%E -6.43%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -17.55%E -7.63%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%18.5%2026-03-01 12:04
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.45%EV -16.14%E -6.78%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.45%EV -14.68%E -6.17%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.11%EV -7.47%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-01 13:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -17.20%E -7.32%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -15.75%E -6.70%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.83%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.50%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-01 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-03-01 13:54
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 35.02%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.71%2.0%2026-03-01 13:54