Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 v Bari

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 18:30 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 2–3 Bari

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV +0.557%
Edge +0.155%
Kelly +0.214%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%27.97%28.10%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.213.203.6034.48%31.12%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bari (Visit)

Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.12%41.64%41.54%42.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.232.3247.62%45.20%44.84%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV +0.580%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.08%30.39%30.35%31.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.063.053.3035.46%32.67%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 27.93%; Bari (Visit): 41.59%; Draw: 30.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.580%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV +0.580%E +0.176%K +0.252%G +0.001%7.5%2026-05-08 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV +0.580%E +0.176%K +0.252%G +0.001%7.5%2026-05-08 17:25
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.55%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV +0.580%E +0.176%K +0.252%G +0.001%7.9%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.37%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -16.20%E -5.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -0.944%E -0.290%K -0.420%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -16.20%E -5.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -2.47%E -0.771%K -1.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -16.20%E -5.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -2.47%E -0.771%K -1.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 17:34
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.48%EV -17.60%E -5.97%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.43%EV -9.75%E -4.49%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -2.47%E -0.771%K -1.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -4.35%E -1.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -3.99%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 17:40
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.54%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.32%EV -4.91%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.895%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 18:04
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.895%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -12.01%E -3.81%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 17:29
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.41%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.41%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.41%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:19
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.41%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-08 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -19.00%E -6.55%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.41%EV -11.83%E -5.58%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -5.52%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-08 17:34
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.895%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.04%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 18:04
theScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.04%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -6.71%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.43%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -7.34%E -2.42%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 18:25
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.83%EV -1.12%E -0.316%K -0.441%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -5.59%E -2.46%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.34%EV -7.65%E -2.52%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 18:19
Pinnacle🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV +0.557%E +0.155%K +0.214%G +0.001%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.45%EV -3.51%E -1.51%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.84%EV -7.95%E -2.63%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-08 18:20
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.24%E -0.639%K -0.895%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 18:23
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 17:39
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 17:30
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 17:34
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:04
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 18:20
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.41%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-08 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.18%E -2.27%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.56%EV -9.78%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.18%E -2.27%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.56%EV -9.78%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -10.09%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -10.09%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.11%EV -11.17%E -3.51%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.58%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.09%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -10.09%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 17:29
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.24%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:24
BetUS🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.24%EV -7.26%E -3.25%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 18:20
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.03%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.50%E -3.87%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-08 17:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-08 17:39
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -11.61%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-08 17:39
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.22%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 18:20
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -9.22%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -12.22%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-08 18:20
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.43%E -2.86%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -13.14%E -4.61%K -7.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 18:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -14.81%E -4.85%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -10.58%E -4.92%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -13.14%E -4.61%K -7.10%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-08 18:19
NetBet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.33%EV -10.62%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.65%EV -12.66%E -6.03%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.02%EV -14.05%E -4.98%K -7.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-08 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%0.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%0.3%2026-05-08 18:25
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%0.3%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-05-08 18:20
Smarkets3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%1.1%2026-05-08 18:24