Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.49
assuming max odds 3.25
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Südtirol (Local): 40.03%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visit): 29.80%; Draw: 30.17%. For Südtirol (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.49, with an expected value of -0.336%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -0.336%E -0.135%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.22%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.64%EV -2.34%E -0.958%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.64%EV -2.34%E -0.958%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.94%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.33%EV -7.90%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.63%EV -7.68%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -3.94%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -4.74%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.30%EV -8.20%E -2.66%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.50%EV -7.68%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.74%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.68%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -0.439%E -0.133%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 13:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.02%EV -11.60%E -3.96%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 13:28 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.80%EV -6.34%E -2.71%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -3.14%E -0.965%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -3.46%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 09:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 16:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 13:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 20:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 13:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-04 08:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -3.46%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-31 09:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-02 14:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-31 09:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-31 09:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-31 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-31 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 14:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-02 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -10.74%E -4.82%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-01 04:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.09%EV -11.14%E -5.02%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.99%EV -15.52%E -5.54%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-31 11:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-02 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 04:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 04:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -13.94%E -6.49%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -12.08%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-02 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 40.32%EV -15.15%E -7.14%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.99%EV -14.02%E -4.92%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-09-01 04:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -15.95%E -7.59%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-03 13:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.27% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.36% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.27% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.36% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16% | 3.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |