Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol v US Catanzaro 1929

Início: 2026-09-05 13:00 UTC

Final: Südtirol 2–0 US Catanzaro 1929

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol (Local)

Previsão 40.03%2.50odd justa
EV -0.336%
Vantagem -0.135%
Kelly -0.226%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.64%39.98%40.04%41.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.292.302.4947.62%43.59%43.48%40.16%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante)

Previsão 29.80%3.36odd justa
EV -3.14%
Vantagem -0.965%
Kelly -1.39%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.77%29.84%29.87%30.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.883.083.103.2534.72%32.48%32.26%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.17%3.31odd justa
EV -0.439%
Vantagem -0.133%
Kelly -0.191%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.95%30.19%30.09%31.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.033.063.3035.71%32.96%32.68%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Südtirol (Local): 40.03%; US Catanzaro 1929 (Visitante): 29.80%; Empate: 30.17%. Para Südtirol (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.50. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.49, com valor esperado de -0.336%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -0.336%E -0.135%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -5.22%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.64%EV -2.34%E -0.958%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.64%EV -2.34%E -0.958%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.94%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.33%EV -7.90%E -2.56%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.63%EV -7.68%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:24
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -3.94%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -4.74%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.30%EV -8.20%E -2.66%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.50%EV -7.68%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.74%E -1.99%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:50
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.68%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -0.439%E -0.133%K -0.191%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 09:54
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 13:05
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 13:04
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:14
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -5.94%E -2.53%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.02%EV -11.60%E -3.96%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:28
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.80%EV -6.34%E -2.71%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -3.14%E -0.965%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -3.46%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 09:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:30
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:35
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.24%EV -7.14%E -3.08%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 04:40
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 16:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 20:15
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:18
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:15
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 14:10
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 13:25
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 08:49
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.94%E -3.45%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -3.46%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 09:24
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 09:54
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 14:54
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 09:20
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 09:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:25
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 14:24
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.51%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-02 13:05
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -9.94%E -4.42%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 12:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -10.74%E -4.82%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 04:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.09%EV -11.14%E -5.02%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.99%EV -15.52%E -5.54%K -8.62%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-04 14:20
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 04:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 04:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.34%EV -11.94%E -5.43%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.08%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 04:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -13.94%E -6.49%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -12.08%E -4.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.32%EV -15.15%E -7.14%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -14.16%E -4.92%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.99%EV -14.02%E -4.92%K -7.58%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-01 04:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -15.95%E -7.59%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-03 13:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.36%2.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.36%2.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%3.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%3.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.64%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.19%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%3.5%2026-09-04 14:35