The School of Odds
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Südtirol v Sampdoria

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 13:02 UTC

Final: Südtirol 1–1 Sampdoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol (Local)

Prediction 33.30%3.00fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.726%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.78%33.48%33.02%35.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.742.752.9640.00%36.50%36.36%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sampdoria (Visit)

Prediction 35.42%2.82fair odd
EV +0.237%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.129%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.86%35.34%35.51%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.592.602.8342.02%38.57%38.46%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.28%3.20fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -0.686%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.09%31.18%31.47%33.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.923.1537.04%34.08%34.25%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Südtirol (Local): 33.30%; Sampdoria (Visit): 35.42%; Draw: 31.28%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.237%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.68%EV -1.42%E -0.481%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV +0.237%E +0.084%K +0.129%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.13%EV -8.67%E -2.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 12:50
BetUS🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.68%EV -1.42%E -0.481%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV +0.237%E +0.084%K +0.129%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.13%EV -8.67%E -2.97%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 12:49
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -3.42%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.60%EV +0.237%E +0.084%K +0.129%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.60%EV -11.48%E -4.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 12:50
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.09%E -1.78%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -0.826%E -0.295%K -0.459%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -12.42%E -4.44%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 13:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.92%EV -3.42%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.72%EV -2.60%E -0.944%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.36%EV -7.73%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 13:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -15.08%E -5.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -2.60%E -0.944%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -10.86%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 12:50
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -4.09%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.37%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -9.92%E -3.44%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.09%E -1.78%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -4.37%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -9.29%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 12:55
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -1.76%E -0.595%K -0.901%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -4.37%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -12.42%E -4.44%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 12:50
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.01%EV -3.42%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.12%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.88%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 12:55
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -3.42%E -1.18%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 12:50
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.79%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.65%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.56%EV -11.80%E -4.18%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 12:55
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.79%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.65%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.56%EV -11.80%E -4.18%K -6.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 12:55
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -5.09%E -1.78%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -7.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 12:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -6.85%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -15.55%E -5.76%K -9.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 12:50
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -9.29%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 13:00
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 12:50
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -7.20%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -15.55%E -5.76%K -9.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 12:49
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -1.48%E -0.468%K -0.686%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 13:01
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 12:30
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -5.09%E -1.78%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.29%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.05%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.59%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -7.73%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -9.29%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -9.92%E -3.44%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 12:55
picklebet_au🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -6.75%E -2.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -12.42%E -4.44%K -6.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 12:55
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -10.86%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -15.55%E -5.76%K -9.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 35.45%EV -14.74%E -5.76%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.45%EV -9.33%E -3.64%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.09%EV -2.41%E -0.774%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 13:00
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.68%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 12:54
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.68%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 12:53
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.68%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -10.86%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 12:55
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -3.04%E -0.980%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 13:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -11.75%E -4.43%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -4.60%E -1.51%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 13:01
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -11.75%E -4.43%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.75%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -10.23%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 13:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -12.42%E -4.44%K -6.90%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 12:50
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.42%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.45%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -12.42%E -4.44%K -6.90%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.05%EV -12.41%E -4.72%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.11%EV -12.16%E -4.90%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 12:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -10.08%E -3.73%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.37%EV -12.16%E -4.90%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.13%EV -14.61%E -5.35%K -8.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 12:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.73%EV -12.41%E -4.72%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.20%EV -13.22%E -5.40%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -7.73%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -13.41%E -5.16%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.06%EV -13.22%E -5.40%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -7.73%E -2.62%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-24 12:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.69%EV -15.08%E -5.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.07%EV -13.22%E -5.40%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -7.99%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-24 13:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.53%EV -11.08%E -4.15%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.89%EV -14.29%E -5.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -13.99%E -5.09%K -7.99%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-24 12:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -15.08%E -5.91%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -14.99%E -6.25%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -6.17%E -2.06%K -3.08%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 13:01
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -12.75%E -4.86%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -14.99%E -6.25%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.29%E -3.21%K -4.89%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-24 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.16%EV -16.74%E -6.70%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.88%EV -15.70%E -6.60%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.96%EV -10.86%E -3.81%K -5.87%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-24 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%0.8%2026-10-24 13:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%0.8%2026-10-24 13:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.46%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%0.8%2026-10-24 13:01
Matchbook◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.12%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.43%1.1%2026-10-24 13:01
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.89%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.24%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.86%2.8%2026-10-24 13:01

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