Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol v Sampdoria

2026-10-24 13:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Südtirol (Local)

Predicción 37.59%2.66momio equitativo
EV -6.03%
Ventaja -2.41%
Kelly -4.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.01%37.65%37.51%39.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.422.452.5047.62%41.28%40.82%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sampdoria (Visitante)

Predicción 32.52%3.07momio equitativo
EV -4.06%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -2.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.90%32.51%32.51%33.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.792.802.9538.46%35.81%35.71%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.89%3.35momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -0.879%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.60%29.84%29.98%30.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.053.103.2534.72%32.74%32.26%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Südtirol (Local): 37.59%; Sampdoria (Visitante): 32.52%; Empate: 29.89%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.35. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.25, con un valor esperado de -2.86%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.22%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.39%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -2.86%E -0.879%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 13:04
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:39
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:15
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 17:09
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.64%EV -7.16%E -2.90%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.85%EV -7.96%E -2.81%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:35
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.64%EV -7.16%E -2.90%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.85%EV -7.96%E -2.81%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:08
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 13:15
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -8.83%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -8.83%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 13:15
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 13:40
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 13:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -4.35%E -1.36%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 15:00
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:05
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -5.84%E -1.86%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:05
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.34%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 13:05
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 13:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:40
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:39
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.54%E -4.43%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -10.54%E -4.43%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.33%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -10.54%E -4.43%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 13:05
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -10.54%E -4.43%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.62%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-17 13:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.14%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.10%EV -13.81%E -5.21%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -8.83%E -2.90%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 13:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.08%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.44%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.49%EV -11.23%E -3.78%K -5.70%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-17 13:04
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.99%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-17 13:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.53%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -15.44%E -5.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.26%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-17 13:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.97%EV -15.44%E -5.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.76%EV -13.92%E -4.83%K -7.40%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-17 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.50%EV -21.07%E -10.03%K -19.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.90%EV -15.44%E -5.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.60%EV -13.32%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%20.6%2026-10-17 13:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 37.36%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.80%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.84%16.4%2026-10-17 13:25