Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol v Frosinone

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 14:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Südtirol (Local)

Prediction 31.00%3.23fair odd
EV +1.05%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.465%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%30.96%31.04%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.883.2637.04%34.36%34.72%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frosinone (Visit)

Prediction 39.85%2.51fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.49%39.83%39.79%42.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.312.312.4450.00%43.28%43.29%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.15%3.43fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.871%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%29.21%29.17%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.553.153.203.3639.22%31.70%31.25%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Südtirol (Local): 31.00%; Frosinone (Visit): 39.85%; Draw: 29.15%. For Südtirol (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.72%EV +1.05%E +0.323%K +0.465%G +0.005%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.71%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.57%EV -7.59%E -2.40%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 13:59
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -0.808%E -0.253%K -0.367%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -16.92%E -5.94%K -9.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 13:58
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -3.29%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -7.14%E -3.07%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Bovada🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49%EV -3.29%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.83%EV -7.94%E -3.44%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.55%E -4.18%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 13:58
BetUS🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49%EV -3.29%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.83%EV -7.94%E -3.44%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.55%E -4.18%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 13:59
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -3.91%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -3.91%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -3.91%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -18.38%E -6.56%K -10.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -3.91%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -19.84%E -7.21%K -11.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-22 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.89%EV -4.53%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.11%EV -7.89%E -2.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.89%EV -4.53%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.11%EV -7.89%E -2.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 14:00
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.07%EV -5.15%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.63%EV -6.74%E -2.88%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.30%EV -2.06%E -0.612%K -0.871%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -5.46%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.87%EV -4.75%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 14:00
theScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -5.46%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.15%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.35%E -1.81%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 14:00
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 13:59
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 13:59
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.55%E -4.18%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -21.30%E -7.89%K -12.53%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -7.01%E -2.34%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -20.29%E -10.15%K -20.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -16.05%E -5.57%K -8.54%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -8.56%E -2.90%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.35%E -1.81%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 13:58
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -8.56%E -2.90%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.06%EV -13.42%E -4.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 13:58
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -9.49%E -3.25%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -7.54%E -3.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -9.49%E -3.25%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -7.54%E -3.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.11%E -3.49%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -10.73%E -3.72%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 13:59
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.73%E -3.72%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.04%E -3.85%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 13:59
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.04%E -3.85%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.64%E -3.11%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -11.66%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -11.66%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.33%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-22 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -11.66%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -14.32%E -6.66%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -11.09%E -3.64%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 28.51%EV -11.66%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 39.63%EV -18.30%E -8.93%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 31.86%EV -25.67%E -10.07%K -16.56%G +0.000%23.1%2026-03-22 14:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 13:59
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 13:59
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -13.21%E -4.72%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -12.32%E -5.60%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -12.55%E -4.18%K -6.28%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-22 13:59
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 13:57
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 13:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.81%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -5.15%E -2.16%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -5.26%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -14.76%E -5.37%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -12.32%E -5.60%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -8.18%E -2.60%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.25%EV -16.31%E -6.04%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.70%EV -7.54%E -3.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.72%E -2.10%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-03-22 14:00
Matchbook3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-03-22 14:00
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.28%1.6%2026-03-22 14:00