Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.43
assuming max odds 3.34
assuming max odds 3.26
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spezia (Local): 40.48%; Mantova (Visit): 29.55%; Draw: 29.97%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.34, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.86%EV -1.63%E -0.673%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 29.00%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.14%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -10.09%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -14.58%E -5.12%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-12 15:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 38.95%EV -5.28%E -2.26%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -13.68%E -4.75%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 15:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 38.95%EV -5.28%E -2.26%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -13.68%E -4.75%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -6.09%E -2.62%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.09%E -1.28%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 11:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.09%E -2.62%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -8.89%E -2.92%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-12 15:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 39.92%EV -6.49%E -2.81%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -11.58%E -3.93%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.29%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.58%EV -5.15%E -1.60%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -2.29%E -0.703%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.59%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 11:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.44%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -5.59%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 11:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.09%E -1.28%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.09%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-12 14:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -16.08%E -5.74%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -19.08%E -7.07%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.24%EV -7.30%E -3.19%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.54%EV -7.81%E -2.50%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.59%E -2.82%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-12 15:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-12 11:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -14.31%E -4.93%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -12.83%E -4.35%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -19.08%E -7.07%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -8.92%E -3.96%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -20.22%E -7.49%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -13.68%E -4.75%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -5.59%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 11:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -11.75%E -5.39%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.24%EV -12.16%E -5.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -2.59%E -0.798%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.23%EV -12.16%E -5.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.14%EV -9.28%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 29.63%EV -9.49%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-12 14:51 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -12.56%E -5.82%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.09%E -1.28%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -12.56%E -5.82%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.09%E -1.28%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.69%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -8.59%E -2.82%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-12 11:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.89%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -12.83%E -4.35%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -10.09%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-12 11:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-12 11:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -12.83%E -4.35%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -13.08%E -4.51%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-12 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.00%EV -13.37%E -6.25%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -5.59%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.30%EV -15.80%E -7.60%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.35%E -3.78%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.38%EV -7.09%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-12 14:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.76% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.05% | 2.2% | 2026-04-12 15:10 |