Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria v Empoli

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 15:17 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sampdoria (Local)

Prediction 39.51%2.53fair odd
EV +0.739%
Edge +0.290%
Kelly +0.477%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.15%39.48%39.59%42.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.5547.62%43.41%43.48%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Empoli (Visit)

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -0.521%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.39%29.48%29.52%31.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.153.3535.71%32.05%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.01%3.22fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.737%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.31%31.04%30.89%33.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.1536.36%33.63%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sampdoria (Local): 39.51%; Empoli (Visit): 29.49%; Draw: 31.01%. For Sampdoria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.739%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.23%EV +0.739%E +0.290%K +0.477%G +0.004%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.13%EV -10.07%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 15:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.15%EV -0.446%E -0.177%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV -1.22%E -0.366%K -0.521%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.15%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.15%EV -0.446%E -0.177%K -0.293%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV -1.22%E -0.366%K -0.521%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.15%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.45%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -1.22%E -0.366%K -0.521%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-06 15:14
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -7.12%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 15:15
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 15:15
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 15:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 15:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -4.79%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.50%EV -6.83%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -9.14%E -3.12%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 15:14
BetUS🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.26%EV -4.79%E -1.99%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 15:14
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81%EV -5.19%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -2.32%E -0.737%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 15:13
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.19%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 15:14
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -5.19%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.70%E -0.818%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 15:14
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.19%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 15:14
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -5.19%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-06 15:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.98%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.17%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.62%EV -5.98%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-06 15:15
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -5.98%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -10.69%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -11.62%E -4.08%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-06 15:15
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -8.35%E -3.60%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.12%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 15:14
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -8.35%E -3.60%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.12%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 15:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.12%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -4.17%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.49%EV -9.14%E -3.12%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 15:09
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.07%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 15:14
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.68%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.80%EV -11.00%E -3.83%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-06 15:14
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 15:13
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 15:14
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-06 15:14
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -15.08%E -5.24%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-06 15:14
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.54%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.89%EV -15.38%E -5.36%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.57%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-06 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.54%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.89%EV -15.38%E -5.36%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.57%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-06 15:15
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.72%E -5.35%K -8.41%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-06 15:14
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -14.49%E -5.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.32%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-06 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.14%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.65%EV -17.44%E -6.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.21%EV -14.72%E -5.35%K -8.41%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-06 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.31%EV -12.30%E -5.54%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.15%EV -9.48%E -3.09%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.54%EV -9.14%E -3.12%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-06 15:13
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:13
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:14
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:14
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.60%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-06 15:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.59%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -13.02%E -4.41%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.89%EV -12.55%E -4.45%K -6.90%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-06 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -14.27%E -6.58%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-06 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.05%EV -14.27%E -6.58%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -5.65%E -1.76%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-06 15:15
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -15.06%E -7.01%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -7.12%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-06 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -15.06%E -7.01%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-06 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -17.04%E -8.11%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -10.07%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-06 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%0.5%2026-04-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%0.5%2026-04-06 15:15
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%0.5%2026-04-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-04-06 15:15
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.37%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%1.8%2026-04-06 15:15