Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reggiana v Monza

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Reggiana (Local)

Prediction 17.24%5.80fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +0.788%
Kelly +0.944%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 6.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.62%17.26%17.26%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.255.206.0821.05%19.05%19.23%16.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monza (Visit)

Prediction 55.96%1.79fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.35%55.93%55.88%56.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.641.641.7267.57%61.09%60.98%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.975%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.72%26.81%26.86%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.423.453.6034.48%29.25%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Reggiana (Local): 17.24%; Monza (Visit): 55.96%; Draw: 26.80%. For Reggiana (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.80. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯6.08I 16.45%NM 15.62%EV +4.79%E +0.788%K +0.944%G +0.045%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.86%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.08%EV +1.69%E +0.287%K +0.345%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.81%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.08%EV +1.69%E +0.287%K +0.345%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.81%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 18:55
FanDuel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.78%EV -0.032%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-17 18:55
Pinnacle🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.78%EV -0.894%E -0.155%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.11%EV -3.75%E -2.18%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.11%EV -4.58%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-17 18:45
Fanatics🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -0.894%E -0.155%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -1.76%E -0.308%K -0.374%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.80%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -3.48%E -0.621%K -0.756%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.74%EV -4.31%E -2.52%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 16.80%EV -4.34%E -0.782%K -0.954%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.86%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -5.12%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 18:54
Coolbet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.14%EV -4.87%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.51%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 18:45
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -3.51%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -4.87%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 15:55
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.45%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 18:55
Bovada🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -8.78%E -5.39%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-17 18:54
BetUS🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -8.78%E -5.39%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-17 18:55
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -5.20%E -0.946%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.68%EV -9.90%E -6.15%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-17 18:30
Betsson🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-17 15:55
NordicBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -8.65%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-17 15:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 18:45
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.57%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-17 18:50
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -9.51%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -9.90%E -6.15%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 18:49
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
Casumo🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:19
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
BetRivers🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
betPARX🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.74%EV -10.37%E -1.99%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.26%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.22%EV -8.78%E -5.39%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-17 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-17 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.35%EV -9.90%E -6.15%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.17%EV -12.09%E -3.68%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-17 18:32
Parions Sport (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.30%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.14%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-17 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 16.87%EV -12.10%E -2.37%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.24%EV -14.38%E -9.40%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-17 18:55
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.92%EV -5.43%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 18:45
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-17 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.45%EV -8.22%E -5.01%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-17 15:55
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-17 18:20
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-17 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-17 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -6.55%E -3.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-17 18:20
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.87%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-17 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -7.66%E -4.65%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-17 18:45
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-17 18:20
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-17 18:55
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.69%EV -9.90%E -6.15%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-17 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.69%EV -9.90%E -6.15%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-17 18:55
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.58%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.95%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-17 18:30
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 54.46%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -16.91%E -5.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-17 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.15%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.05%EV -14.38%E -9.40%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.80%EV -14.23%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%16.6%2026-03-17 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 16.39%EV -13.82%E -2.76%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 55.36%EV -17.18%E -11.61%K -35.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.25%EV -22.27%E -7.68%K -11.72%G +0.000%22.1%2026-03-17 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.33%EV -17.27%E -3.60%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.00%EV -10.46%E -6.54%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-17 15:55
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -18.13%E -3.82%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -9.34%E -5.77%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -8.87%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-17 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%0.9%2026-03-17 18:40
Matchbook6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.24%1.6%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59%1.6%2026-03-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59%1.6%2026-03-17 18:55
Smarkets6.20I 16.13%NM 15.82%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-03-17 18:55