Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palermo v Südtirol

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 14:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palermo (Local)

Prediction 57.51%1.74fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.88%57.62%57.41%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.591.581.6969.44%62.94%63.29%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Südtirol (Visit)

Prediction 17.16%5.83fair odd
EV +8.77%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 6.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.23%17.05%17.28%18.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.365.256.3421.74%18.66%19.05%15.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.33%3.95fair odd
EV +1.33%
Edge +0.332%
Kelly +0.442%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.75%25.33%25.30%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.604.0031.25%27.61%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palermo (Local): 57.51%; Südtirol (Visit): 17.16%; Draw: 25.33%. For Südtirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.83. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.88%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.34I 15.77%NM 15.23%EV +8.77%E +1.38%K +1.64%G +0.144%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.89%EV -5.51%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.26%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV +2.93%E +0.489%K +0.587%G +0.017%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.27%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-21 13:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.26%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV +2.93%E +0.489%K +0.587%G +0.017%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.27%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-21 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -8.55%E -5.38%K -14.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV +2.93%E +0.489%K +0.587%G +0.017%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -10.86%E -7.00%K -19.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV +2.93%E +0.489%K +0.587%G +0.017%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 14:00
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.02%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV +1.22%E +0.206%K +0.249%G +0.003%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.87%EV -3.23%E -0.846%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 13:59
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.62%EV -1.36%E -0.236%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.48%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-21 13:59
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -8.55%E -5.38%K -14.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -1.36%E -0.236%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV +1.33%E +0.332%K +0.442%G +0.006%5.3%2026-02-21 14:00
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -1.36%E -0.236%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 13:59
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -1.36%E -0.236%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.51%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.03%EV -3.93%E -0.702%K -0.854%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -1.21%E -0.309%K -0.416%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.26%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -3.93%E -0.702%K -0.854%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.07%EV -9.31%E -2.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -3.74%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 13:59
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.23%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -5.64%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -13.87%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 14:00
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.46%EV -9.08%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 13:59
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.46%EV -9.08%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 58.08%EV -17.18%E -11.93%K -39.05%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.78%EV -9.08%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.14%EV -18.94%E -5.92%K -8.61%G +0.000%19.6%2026-02-21 13:59
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -2.80%E -1.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:00
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -10.07%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 14:00
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -3.74%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.86%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 13:59
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.06%EV -9.13%E -5.78%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.42%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.77%EV -10.07%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 13:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -5.01%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -9.93%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.93%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -10.79%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -6.27%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.93%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -10.79%E -2.08%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -6.27%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-21 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.11%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -12.51%E -2.45%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.01%EV -3.74%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-21 13:53
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.75%EV -6.83%E -4.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -12.61%E -3.65%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-21 14:00
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 14:00
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -8.81%E -2.45%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -13.87%E -4.08%K -5.78%G +0.000%13.1%2026-02-21 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.65%EV -12.58%E -8.28%K -24.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.53%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.82%EV -10.58%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-21 13:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.53%EV -12.58%E -8.28%K -24.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -11.34%E -3.24%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-21 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.65%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.47%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -17.67%E -5.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%14.5%2026-02-21 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.05%EV -13.73%E -9.15%K -27.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.42%EV -14.22%E -2.84%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.53%EV -10.07%E -2.84%K -3.95%G +0.000%14.8%2026-02-21 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.88%EV -9.13%E -5.78%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.85%EV -21.08%E -4.58%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.27%EV -16.41%E -4.97%K -7.13%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-21 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.80%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.6%2026-02-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.94%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.06%1.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.94%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.06%1.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.94%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.06%1.0%2026-02-21 14:00
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 58.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.24%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.01%2.5%2026-02-21 14:00