Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena v Spezia

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 55.64%1.80fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -5.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.55%55.70%55.64%57.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.661.671.7267.57%60.20%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spezia (Visit)

Prediction 18.36%5.45fair odd
EV +5.57%
Edge +0.968%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.25%18.26%18.34%19.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.904.885.7522.73%20.42%20.51%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.383%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.04%26.03%28.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.503.7933.33%28.72%28.57%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 55.64%; Spezia (Visit): 18.36%; Draw: 26.00%. For Spezia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV +5.57%E +0.968%K +1.17%G +0.065%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 15:40
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.30%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.16%EV +3.00%E +0.534%K +0.650%G +0.019%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.54%EV -1.97%E -0.523%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-13 19:05
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.17%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.25%EV +2.81%E +0.502%K +0.611%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +0.976%E +0.178%K +0.217%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 19:15
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.95%EV -2.70%E -0.509%K -0.627%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -1.45%E -0.383%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.39%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.39%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.49%E -0.665%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:24
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.79%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 19:25
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 18:39
Bovada🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:00
BetUS🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.49%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -4.53%E -0.871%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 13:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.92%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.13%EV -5.45%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.52%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 19:25
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 19:25
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:49
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -10.42%E -6.47%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:18
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -10.42%E -6.47%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-13 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.18%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -15.49%E -4.77%K -6.89%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-13 18:59
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.46%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -19.39%E -6.26%K -9.23%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-13 19:20
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -9.12%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 13:05
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -9.12%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 13:05
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.86%EV -8.75%E -5.34%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -10.04%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-13 19:24
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.64%EV -10.96%E -2.26%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 18:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -11.88%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 55.50%EV -17.66%E -11.93%K -36.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.11%EV -11.88%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.38%EV -21.99%E -7.33%K -11.00%G +0.000%21.7%2026-03-13 19:00
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.78%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.42%EV -12.11%E -3.58%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-13 19:05
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -13.71%E -2.92%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-13 13:04
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.72%EV -11.53%E -7.25%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.91%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-13 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.57%EV -13.76%E -8.88%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.72%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.71%EV -12.89%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-13 19:25
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.55%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -17.38%E -3.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -12.65%E -8.06%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -17.38%E -3.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -16.79%E -5.25%K -7.63%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.21%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.96%EV -19.22%E -4.37%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-13 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-03-13 19:15