La escuela de los momios

Modena v Spezia

Inicio: 2026-03-13 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Modena (Local)

Predicción 55.64%1.80momio equitativo
EV -4.30%
Ventaja -2.50%
Kelly -5.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.55%55.70%55.64%57.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.481.661.671.7267.57%60.20%59.88%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Spezia (Visitante)

Predicción 18.36%5.45momio equitativo
EV +5.57%
Ventaja +0.968%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.065%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.25%18.26%18.34%19.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.404.904.885.7522.73%20.42%20.51%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.00%3.85momio equitativo
EV -1.45%
Ventaja -0.383%
Kelly -0.520%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.10%26.04%26.03%28.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.483.503.7933.33%28.72%28.57%26.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.30%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV +5.57%E +0.968%K +1.17%G +0.065%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 15:40
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.30%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.16%EV +3.00%E +0.534%K +0.650%G +0.019%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.54%EV -1.97%E -0.523%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-13 19:05
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 56.17%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.25%EV +2.81%E +0.502%K +0.611%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +0.976%E +0.178%K +0.217%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-13 19:15
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.95%EV -2.70%E -0.509%K -0.627%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -1.45%E -0.383%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 19:25
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 55.39%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:24
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 55.39%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:25
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.49%E -0.665%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:24
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.79%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 19:25
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 18:39
Bovada1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:00
BetUS1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -3.61%E -0.688%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 19:00
Codere (IT)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.49%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -4.53%E -0.871%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.15%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 13:04
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.92%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.13%EV -5.45%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 18:59
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.52%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 19:25
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.33%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 18:40
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 19:25
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:49
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 11:50
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -10.42%E -6.47%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 19:18
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -10.42%E -6.47%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-13 18:35
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 55.18%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -15.49%E -4.77%K -6.89%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-13 18:59
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 54.46%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -8.20%E -1.64%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -19.39%E -6.26%K -9.23%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-13 19:20
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -9.12%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 13:05
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.65%EV -9.12%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 13:05
Bet Right1.64I 60.98%NM 55.86%EV -8.75%E -5.34%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -10.04%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-13 19:24
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.64%EV -10.96%E -2.26%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 18:29
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -11.88%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 19:25
PMU (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 55.50%EV -17.66%E -11.93%K -36.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.11%EV -11.88%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.38%EV -21.99%E -7.33%K -11.00%G +0.000%21.7%2026-03-13 19:00
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 18:29
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 54.78%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.42%EV -12.11%E -3.58%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-13 19:05
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -12.79%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 18:30
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -13.71%E -2.92%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-13 13:04
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:34
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:35
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
ATG (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -4.86%E -2.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 18:30
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.70%EV -5.41%E -3.19%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:35
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 54.23%EV -8.20%E -4.97%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-13 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 54.72%EV -11.53%E -7.25%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.91%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-13 19:10
NetBet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 55.57%EV -13.76%E -8.88%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.72%EV -15.55%E -3.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.71%EV -12.89%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-13 19:25
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 53.55%EV -6.53%E -3.89%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -17.38%E -3.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-06 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -12.65%E -8.06%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -17.38%E -3.86%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -16.79%E -5.25%K -7.63%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-13 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.21%EV -9.87%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.96%EV -19.22%E -4.37%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-13 13:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-03-13 19:15
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.64%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-03-13 19:15