The School of Odds
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Modena v Avellino

2026-09-06 13:00 UTC — Serie B - Italy

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 52.93%1.89fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.11%52.81%52.93%53.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.731.8061.73%57.79%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avellino (Visit)

Prediction 20.48%4.88fair odd
EV +0.341%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.48%20.62%20.52%22.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.364.404.9025.00%22.93%22.73%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%26.57%26.55%27.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.433.403.6231.75%29.18%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Modena (Local): 52.93%; Avellino (Visit): 20.48%; Draw: 26.59%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.90, producing a positive expected value of +0.341%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.48%EV +0.341%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -5.59%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 12:04
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.50%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -2.73%E -0.575%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 11:20
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.68%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -5.80%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.59%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 09:25
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -5.80%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.91%E -3.26%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 12:04
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -8.96%E -5.21%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -5.80%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.91%E -3.26%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 12:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -10.02%E -5.90%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -5.80%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-31 12:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -7.90%E -4.54%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.85%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 11:19
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.43%E -4.88%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -7.85%E -1.74%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.02%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.90%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -3.73%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 09:05
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -7.38%E -4.21%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -9.90%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.25%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.56%EV -10.55%E -6.24%K -15.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -9.90%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.88%EV -12.14%E -7.31%K -18.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -9.90%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.17%EV -14.10%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-31 12:05
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.45%EV -10.51%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.89%EV -3.73%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 09:15
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -11.33%E -2.62%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.26%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.76%EV -14.26%E -8.80%K -22.99%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.11%EV -12.97%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.13%EV -16.23%E -5.15%K -7.55%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-31 12:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.61%EV -5.26%E -2.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -13.99%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 12:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.61%EV -5.26%E -2.94%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -13.99%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -6.92%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 12:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.68%EV -12.14%E -7.31%K -18.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -13.99%E -3.33%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-31 12:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.50%EV -13.20%E -8.05%K -20.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.00%EV -16.04%E -3.91%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.49%EV -13.57%E -4.18%K -6.03%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-31 12:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.43%E -4.88%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -18.09%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-31 12:04
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.43%E -4.88%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -18.09%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-31 12:04
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.43%E -4.88%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -18.09%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.58%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-31 12:04
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -8.43%E -4.88%K -11.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -18.09%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -12.24%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 51.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.65%16.7%2026-08-31 12:05