Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena v Avellino

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Final: Modena 0–1 Avellino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modena (Local)

Prediction 57.32%1.74fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.52%57.22%57.34%59.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.631.621.7066.23%61.52%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avellino (Visit)

Prediction 17.12%5.84fair odd
EV +7.54%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.108%

assuming max odds 6.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.10%17.15%17.14%19.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.195.006.2822.22%19.26%20.00%15.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.564%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.25%25.63%25.52%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.563.553.8531.25%28.07%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modena (Local): 57.32%; Avellino (Visit): 17.12%; Draw: 25.56%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.84. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.00%EV -4.85%E -2.92%K -7.35%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.33%EV +7.54%E +1.20%K +1.43%G +0.108%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.67%EV -7.74%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.52%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.10%EV +6.17%E +0.995%K +1.19%G +0.073%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.52%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.10%EV +6.17%E +0.995%K +1.19%G +0.073%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 12:55
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.54%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.97%EV +1.71%E +0.289%K +0.347%G +0.006%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.49%EV -4.93%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 12:50
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.69%EV -8.86%E -5.57%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -0.683%E -0.118%K -0.142%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.31%EV -11.15%E -7.20%K -20.28%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -0.683%E -0.118%K -0.142%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 12:55
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.15%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -1.54%E -0.268%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 12:45
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -1.54%E -0.268%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.94%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -3.25%E -0.576%K -0.699%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.18%EV -6.00%E -3.66%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.11%E -0.734%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:25
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -4.28%E -2.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -5.82%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -5.82%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:25
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -5.82%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:45
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -10.01%E -6.37%K -17.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -5.82%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -10.01%E -6.37%K -17.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -5.82%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 12:48
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -6.00%E -3.66%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -7.53%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:55
BetUS🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -6.00%E -3.66%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -7.53%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.26%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.29%EV -9.24%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.26%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.29%EV -9.24%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.07%EV -12.30%E -8.04%K -23.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.47%EV -9.24%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.46%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-06 12:54
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.27%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -10.10%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.42%E -3.29%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -10.10%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.02%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -10.10%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -13.11%E -3.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 12:35
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -10.10%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -13.11%E -3.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.09%EV -13.45%E -8.91%K -26.37%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.20%EV -12.67%E -2.48%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 12:35
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -2.56%E -1.50%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -4.28%E -2.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.56%EV -9.43%E -5.97%K -16.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:40
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.29%E -5.18%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:40
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -10.01%E -6.37%K -17.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -10.01%E -6.37%K -17.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 12:45
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -10.01%E -6.37%K -17.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -14.38%E -2.88%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -13.11%E -3.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.28%EV -10.58%E -6.78%K -18.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -16.09%E -3.28%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 12:25
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -4.28%E -2.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -17.81%E -3.71%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -17.81%E -3.71%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -17.81%E -3.71%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 12:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.70%EV -7.71%E -4.79%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -17.81%E -3.71%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 12:20
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.88%EV -4.28%E -2.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -18.66%E -3.93%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.57%EV -5.42%E -3.29%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -18.66%E -3.93%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.11%E -3.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 12:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.87%EV -5.42%E -3.29%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -19.52%E -4.15%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.54%EV -6.57%E -4.03%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.92%EV -19.52%E -4.15%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -14.39%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-06 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.70%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -19.52%E -4.15%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -14.39%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.70%EV -7.14%E -4.41%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.85%EV -19.52%E -4.15%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -14.39%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 12:20
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -4.28%E -2.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -21.23%E -4.62%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 12:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.52%EV -10.58%E -6.78%K -18.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.90%EV -22.94%E -5.10%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.58%EV -18.22%E -5.69%K -8.28%G +0.000%17.6%2026-09-06 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-09-06 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-09-06 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-09-06 12:50
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-09-06 12:50
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.23%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90%1.6%2026-09-06 12:50