Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.42
assuming max odds 2.63
assuming max odds 3.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantova (Local): 31.11%; Sampdoria (Visit): 37.25%; Draw: 31.65%. For Mantova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.39%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.76%EV +6.39%E +1.87%K +2.64%G +0.169% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.72%EV -10.98%E -4.59%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.51%EV -7.59%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%EV -0.455%E -0.142%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.33%EV -3.53%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.45%EV -5.70%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 13:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -0.455%E -0.142%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.78%EV -11.35%E -4.77%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.26%EV -1.70%E -0.538%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.77%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.97%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.26%EV -1.70%E -0.538%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.77%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.97%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -2.01%E -0.638%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.37%EV -9.49%E -3.91%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -7.91%E -2.72%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -2.01%E -0.638%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.30%EV -10.24%E -4.25%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -3.57%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.57%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-21 13:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -3.57%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-21 13:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.35%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.78%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-21 13:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.80%EV -6.68%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.42%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%EV -1.90%E -0.612%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 13:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -6.68%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -5.02%E -1.97%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -6.68%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-21 13:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -6.68%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-21 13:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -6.68%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -21.78%E -10.37%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.22%EV -7.30%E -2.45%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.92%EV -6.14%E -2.44%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.86%EV -7.59%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.22%EV -7.30%E -2.45%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.92%EV -6.14%E -2.44%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.86%EV -7.59%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 13:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 13:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-21 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.88%E -2.75%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-21 13:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 13:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -9.79%E -3.38%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-21 13:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.48%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -14.33%E -6.23%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -10.72%E -3.74%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.42%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -9.18%E -3.20%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -10.72%E -3.74%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.42%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.29%EV -9.18%E -3.20%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-02-21 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -11.34%E -3.98%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -6.65%E -2.25%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.34%E -3.98%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -8.75%E -3.57%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-02-21 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.03%EV -11.97%E -4.23%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.37%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 31.59%EV -12.03%E -4.33%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-02-21 13:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.61%E -4.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -1.90%E -0.612%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.12%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.72%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.01%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.42%EV -13.59%E -5.86%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.57%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-02-21 13:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.92%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.23%EV -16.20%E -7.20%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 32.85%EV -19.30%E -7.57%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-02-21 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -14.45%E -5.26%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.73%EV -2.04%E -0.776%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.05%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-21 13:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -14.45%E -5.26%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-21 08:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -14.45%E -5.26%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -3.16%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-21 09:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.72%EV -14.45%E -5.26%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.12%EV -12.47%E -5.31%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-02-21 13:41 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.86% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.72% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.42% | 0.4% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.63% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.57% | 0.6% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52% | 0.8% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52% | 0.8% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.83% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.23% | 1.7% | 2026-02-21 13:55 |