Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mantova v Pisa

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:18 UTC

Final: Mantova 2–2 Pisa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mantova (Local)

Prediction 35.05%2.85fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.79%35.06%35.00%36.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.602.8041.67%38.33%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pisa (Visit)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd
EV -0.332%
Edge -0.119%
Kelly -0.186%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%35.74%35.94%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.552.7842.55%39.25%39.22%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.447%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.91%29.19%29.07%30.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.153.4034.48%31.93%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mantova (Local): 35.05%; Pisa (Visit): 35.85%; Draw: 29.10%. For Pisa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.78, with an expected value of -0.332%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -1.85%E -0.662%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 15:11
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.20%EV -3.61%E -1.31%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.82%EV -0.332%E -0.119%K -0.186%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -6.02%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 15:05
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.61%E -1.31%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 14:49
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.66%EV -3.96%E -1.44%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.11%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 15:11
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
BetUS🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 15:14
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 15:14
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 15:15
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:15
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:15
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 15:10
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -7.11%E -2.68%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -1.07%E -0.316%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 15:11
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -7.81%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.97%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 15:14
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.97%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 15:14
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 15:15
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-20 15:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:09
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 15:15
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 15:11
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.64%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.31%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -3.20%E -1.19%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:11
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:15
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.76%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.18%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.26%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 14:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 34.68%EV -11.32%E -4.47%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.56%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.26%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 15:15
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 14:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 15:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.57%EV -13.42%E -5.43%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.14%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.29%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 15:11
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.81%EV -14.12%E -5.76%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.29%EV -15.75%E -6.70%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.91%EV -14.17%E -4.80%K -7.26%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-20 14:29
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -15.88%E -6.61%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-20 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.37%EV -15.88%E -6.61%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.37%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.27%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-20 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Matchbook◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.38%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.22%1.8%2026-09-20 15:15