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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Mantova v Pisa

Inicio: 2026-09-20 15:18 UTC

Final: Mantova 2–2 Pisa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mantova (Local)

Predicción 35.05%2.85momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -0.662%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.79%35.06%35.00%36.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.612.602.8041.67%38.33%38.46%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pisa (Visitante)

Predicción 35.85%2.79momio equitativo
EV -0.332%
Ventaja -0.119%
Kelly -0.186%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.13%35.74%35.94%36.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.552.552.7842.55%39.25%39.22%35.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.10%3.44momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.316%
Kelly -0.447%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.91%29.19%29.07%30.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.133.153.4034.48%31.93%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mantova (Local): 35.05%; Pisa (Visitante): 35.85%; Empate: 29.10%. Para Pisa (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.79. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.78, con un valor esperado de -0.332%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -1.85%E -0.662%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 15:11
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.20%EV -3.61%E -1.31%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.82%EV -0.332%E -0.119%K -0.186%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -6.02%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 15:05
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.61%E -1.31%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 14:49
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.66%EV -3.96%E -1.44%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.11%EV -5.71%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 15:11
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
BetUS🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.48%EV -4.66%E -1.71%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.26%EV -4.63%E -1.74%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 14:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 15:14
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 15:14
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 15:15
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:15
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:15
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -5.36%E -1.99%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 15:10
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -7.11%E -2.68%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.99%E -1.88%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -1.07%E -0.316%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 15:11
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -7.81%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.97%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 15:14
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.97%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 15:14
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.07%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:50
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 15:15
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -8.16%E -3.12%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-20 15:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:09
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 15:15
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 14:29
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 15:11
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.64%EV -8.87%E -3.41%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.31%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -3.20%E -1.19%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:11
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:15
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-20 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -11.09%E -4.47%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.76%EV -10.62%E -4.16%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.18%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -11.26%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 14:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 34.68%EV -11.32%E -4.47%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.56%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -11.26%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 15:15
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -6.78%E -2.61%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.58%E -3.36%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 15:11
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 14:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -12.37%E -4.95%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -12.16%E -4.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 15:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.57%EV -13.42%E -5.43%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.14%EV -10.37%E -4.15%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.29%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 15:11
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.81%EV -14.12%E -5.76%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.29%EV -15.75%E -6.70%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.91%EV -14.17%E -4.80%K -7.26%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-20 14:29
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -15.88%E -6.61%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-20 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.37%EV -15.88%E -6.61%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.37%EV -13.96%E -5.81%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.27%EV -15.62%E -5.39%K -8.22%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-20 15:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.46%1.0%2026-09-20 15:15
Matchbook◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.38%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.22%1.8%2026-09-20 15:15