Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia v Monza

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:00 UTC

Final: Juve Stabia 2–2 Monza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juve Stabia (Local)

Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV -0.097%
Edge -0.031%
Kelly -0.045%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.88%31.74%31.82%32.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.923.1437.04%34.24%34.25%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monza (Visit)

Prediction 36.33%2.75fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.48%36.36%36.29%38.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.6643.48%39.78%40.00%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.603%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%31.90%31.89%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.853.1038.02%34.98%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juve Stabia (Local): 31.82%; Monza (Visit): 36.33%; Draw: 31.85%. For Juve Stabia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.143. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.140, with an expected value of -0.097%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.82%EV -0.097%E -0.031%K -0.045%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.38%EV -3.35%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-16 17:55
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -1.37%E -0.442%K -0.652%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.27%EV -9.89%E -3.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -2.86%E -0.937%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 17:55
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.37%E -0.442%K -0.652%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 17:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.46%EV -2.64%E -0.863%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.88%EV -5.17%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.66%EV -3.18%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -2.96%E -0.971%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -2.96%E -0.971%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:45
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 17:30
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.31%EV -7.71%E -3.04%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:53
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.31%EV -7.71%E -3.04%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:30
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 17:45
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.40%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.76%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.83%EV -1.27%E -0.409%K -0.603%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -9.89%E -3.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -9.89%E -3.99%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 17:30
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -10.98%E -4.48%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 17:30
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -7.10%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.26%E -2.43%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -7.00%E -2.40%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 17:50
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -7.10%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.26%E -2.43%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -7.00%E -2.40%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 17:50
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 17:40
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 17:39
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 17:45
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -14.01%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 17:45
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -5.53%E -2.13%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.64%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.64%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -16.43%E -7.14%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -16.24%E -6.17%K -9.96%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-16 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 17:00
theScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -12.80%E -5.33%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -14.01%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-16 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 31.60%EV -9.96%E -3.52%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.80%EV -11.71%E -4.82%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 31.60%EV -9.87%E -3.49%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 17:48
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -7.35%E -2.88%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 17:00
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.64%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.33%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -14.61%E -6.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.33%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-16 17:50
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 16:54
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.16%E -3.67%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-16 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.91%EV -14.61%E -6.22%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-16 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -12.80%E -5.33%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-16 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%0.3%2026-05-16 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%0.3%2026-05-16 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%0.3%2026-05-16 17:40
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%0.3%2026-05-16 17:40
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%1.1%2026-05-16 17:40