Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona v Ascoli

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Hellas Verona 1–2 Ascoli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hellas Verona (Local)

Prediction 53.63%1.86fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -5.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.77%53.64%53.61%57.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.691.701.7965.36%59.01%58.82%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ascoli (Visit)

Prediction 19.11%5.23fair odd
EV +7.02%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.12%19.06%19.04%21.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.814.755.6023.81%20.79%21.05%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.26%3.67fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.812%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.57%27.30%27.35%30.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.453.403.7533.11%29.01%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hellas Verona (Local): 53.63%; Ascoli (Visit): 19.11%; Draw: 27.26%. For Ascoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.23. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.56%EV -4.01%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV +7.02%E +1.25%K +1.53%G +0.107%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.32%EV -10.85%E -3.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 16:49
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -5.62%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -5.62%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:49
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.64%EV +2.81%E +0.523%K +0.643%G +0.018%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.07%EV -9.37%E -5.54%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV +1.29%E +0.243%K +0.299%G +0.004%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 16:44
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.68%EV -8.30%E -4.85%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV +0.330%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV +0.330%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.10%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.12%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.77%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 16:48
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -9.49%E -2.86%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:53
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 16:49
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.49%EV -16.34%E -10.48%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -0.493%E -0.135%K -0.186%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 04:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.42%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.36%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -6.36%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.50%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.77%EV -4.01%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.13%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -17.67%E -5.85%K -8.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 16:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -15.27%E -9.66%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -15.27%E -9.66%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.41%EV -15.81%E -10.07%K -27.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.64%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-23 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -13.12%E -8.10%K -21.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-23 16:39
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:54
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.85%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.55%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.59%EV -16.85%E -5.52%K -8.22%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-23 16:54
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -8.30%E -4.85%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 16:39
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.44%EV -9.37%E -5.54%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.10%EV -17.95%E -11.73%K -33.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.66%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.24%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.77%EV -12.59%E -7.72%K -19.98%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -13.05%E -2.87%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-23 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 16:54
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 16:49
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.17%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:53
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.10%EV -9.91%E -5.90%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 16:54
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.39%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -16.87%E -3.88%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.22%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.2%2026-08-23 16:55
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.02%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.02%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-08-23 16:55
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 54.16%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-23 16:55