Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hellas Verona v Ascoli

Inicio: 2026-08-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Hellas Verona 1–2 Ascoli

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hellas Verona (Local)

Predicción 53.63%1.86momio equitativo
EV -4.01%
Ventaja -2.24%
Kelly -5.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.77%53.64%53.61%57.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.691.701.7965.36%59.01%58.82%55.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ascoli (Visitante)

Predicción 19.11%5.23momio equitativo
EV +7.02%
Ventaja +1.25%
Kelly +1.53%
Crecimiento +0.107%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.12%19.06%19.04%21.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.814.755.6023.81%20.79%21.05%17.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.26%3.67momio equitativo
EV +2.23%
Ventaja +0.596%
Kelly +0.812%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.57%27.30%27.35%30.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.023.453.403.7533.11%29.01%29.41%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hellas Verona (Local): 53.63%; Ascoli (Visitante): 19.11%; Empate: 27.26%. Para Ascoli (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.23. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.56%EV -4.01%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV +7.02%E +1.25%K +1.53%G +0.107%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.32%EV -10.85%E -3.32%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 16:49
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -5.62%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -5.62%E -3.19%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV +3.20%E +0.592%K +0.726%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:49
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.64%EV +2.81%E +0.523%K +0.643%G +0.018%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.07%EV -9.37%E -5.54%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV +1.29%E +0.243%K +0.299%G +0.004%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 16:44
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.68%EV -8.30%E -4.85%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV +0.330%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV +0.330%E +0.063%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.35%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV +2.23%E +0.596%K +0.812%G +0.018%6.9%2026-08-23 16:49
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.10%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -2.54%E -0.497%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.12%EV -5.08%E -2.87%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.77%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 16:48
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -9.49%E -2.86%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:53
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 16:49
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.49%EV -16.34%E -10.48%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -4.45%E -0.890%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -0.493%E -0.135%K -0.186%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-21 04:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.42%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.36%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -6.36%E -1.30%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.76%E -3.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.50%EV -4.54%E -2.55%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.77%EV -4.01%E -2.24%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.13%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -17.67%E -5.85%K -8.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 16:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -15.27%E -9.66%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.25%EV -15.27%E -9.66%K -26.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.41%EV -15.81%E -10.07%K -27.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.64%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -3.22%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-23 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -13.12%E -8.10%K -21.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -9.23%E -1.94%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-23 16:39
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:54
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.03%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 16:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.85%EV -11.51%E -6.98%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.55%EV -10.18%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.59%EV -16.85%E -5.52%K -8.22%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-23 16:54
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -8.30%E -4.85%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 16:39
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.44%EV -9.37%E -5.54%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -1.86%E -0.516%K -0.714%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.10%EV -17.95%E -11.73%K -33.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.66%EV -12.09%E -2.63%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.24%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-23 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.77%EV -12.59%E -7.72%K -19.98%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -13.05%E -2.87%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-23 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.08%EV -6.69%E -3.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 16:54
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 16:49
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.17%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -14.00%E -3.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:53
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -7.22%E -4.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -8.83%E -5.20%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.10%EV -9.91%E -5.90%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -15.91%E -3.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 16:54
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.39%EV -7.76%E -4.51%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -16.87%E -3.88%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -8.67%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -10.44%E -6.25%K -15.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -17.25%E -3.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -4.58%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 16:39
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.15%E -3.52%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -19.74%E -4.70%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 16:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.22%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.2%2026-08-23 16:55
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.02%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.02%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-08-23 16:55
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.16%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-23 16:55