Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.57
assuming max odds 5.87
assuming max odds 4.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frosinone (Local): 60.61%; Mantova (Visit): 17.73%; Draw: 21.65%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.10%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.53%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.35%EV +4.10%E +0.698%K +0.842%G +0.035% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.12%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-08 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -10.29%E -6.95%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV +2.86%E +0.493%K +0.595%G +0.017% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -6.89%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV +1.08%E +0.190%K +0.231%G +0.003% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.34%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -2.56%E -0.569%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 18:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -2.56%E -0.569%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -6.89%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.36%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.89%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 18:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -2.46%E -0.448%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.51%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.86%EV -5.65%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.64%EV -4.94%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 18:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -6.01%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 17:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -6.01%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 17:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.02%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -6.01%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.64%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -6.90%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -6.24%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -6.90%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -6.24%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 17:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -6.90%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -7.97%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -6.90%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -6.90%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.58%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -7.78%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -2.56%E -0.569%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -4.73%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.40%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.11%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -6.24%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 18:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 18:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.55%E -3.99%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.85%EV -13.32%E -9.32%K -30.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -12.72%E -8.83%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -11.33%E -2.27%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -22.05%E -6.12%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-05-08 18:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -12.22%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -5.81%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.76%EV -12.22%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -5.81%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.86%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.02%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.18%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.18%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -13.10%E -2.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -11.22%E -2.74%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -14.88%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -14.88%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -14.88%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.05%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -14.88%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 18:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.10%EV -8.47%E -5.61%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -14.88%E -3.10%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.76%E -3.32%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -13.39%E -3.35%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.92%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -16.65%E -3.54%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -4.73%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-08 17:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.02%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -16.65%E -3.54%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -14.47%E -3.66%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-08 17:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 59.60%EV -11.51%E -7.88%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.92%EV -18.42%E -4.00%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.49%EV -12.30%E -3.04%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.48%EV -10.29%E -6.95%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.56%EV -20.20%E -4.49%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -9.06%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95% | 1.2% | 2026-05-08 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95% | 1.2% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95% | 1.2% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.95% | 1.2% | 2026-05-08 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.27% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.87% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86% | 1.6% | 2026-05-08 17:55 |