Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli v Cremonese

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:01 UTC

Final: Empoli 1–0 Cremonese

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Empoli (Local)

Prediction 29.99%3.33fair odd
EV +0.482%
Edge +0.144%
Kelly +0.205%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.96%30.02%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.003.3537.04%32.96%33.33%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cremonese (Visit)

Prediction 39.81%2.51fair odd
EV -0.474%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.316%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.20%39.75%39.83%40.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.342.302.5046.08%42.72%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.19%3.31fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%30.29%30.15%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.003.2036.36%33.11%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Empoli (Local): 29.99%; Cremonese (Visit): 39.81%; Draw: 30.19%. For Empoli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.482%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%EV +0.482%E +0.144%K +0.205%G +0.001%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.11%EV -4.45%E -1.86%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.15%EV -6.70%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 14:50
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -1.02%E -0.308%K -0.443%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.45%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 13:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -2.52%E -0.775%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 13:24
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.20%EV -3.72%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.06%EV -6.84%E -2.92%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -7.91%E -2.59%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 15:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.85%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -5.65%E -2.38%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.85%EV -3.38%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 14:14
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.45%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -7.91%E -2.59%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 14:48
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.25%E -2.21%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 14:09
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -7.64%E -3.29%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -7.91%E -2.59%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -6.45%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 15:20
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 13:24
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -4.02%E -1.26%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 13:24
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -5.52%E -1.75%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.45%E -1.86%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 12:49
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.45%E -1.86%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -3.38%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 13:34
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -6.05%E -2.56%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -6.05%E -2.56%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:05
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -6.05%E -2.56%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:10
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 14:48
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 14:09
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 14:09
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -7.02%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 13:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 29.61%EV -7.92%E -2.58%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.51%EV -10.02%E -3.36%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:09
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.25%E -2.21%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.38%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.45%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 13:34
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 15:00
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 15:00
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 13:33
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 13:34
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.40%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 13:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -4.89%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 14:09
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -5.79%E -1.86%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 14:59
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -5.79%E -1.86%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 14:58
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:49
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:49
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.02%E -3.34%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.42%E -5.64%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 14:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:45
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:45
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:44
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:45
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:44
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -0.474%E -0.190%K -0.316%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.42%E -3.14%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 12:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -7.91%E -2.59%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -11.52%E -3.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.53%EV -12.42%E -5.64%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -7.91%E -2.59%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 29.73%EV -12.42%E -4.25%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.01%EV -13.61%E -6.27%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.25%EV -13.34%E -4.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-22 15:00
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -13.02%E -4.49%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -10.43%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-22 12:50
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -14.52%E -5.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.46%EV -4.45%E -1.86%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-22 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -16.02%E -5.72%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -5.25%E -2.21%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -13.04%E -4.53%K -6.94%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 12:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.66%EV -16.02%E -5.72%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.24%EV -5.25%E -2.21%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.54%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 12:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.66%EV -16.02%E -5.72%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.24%EV -5.25%E -2.21%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.54%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -19.01%E -7.04%K -11.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.20%EV -8.44%E -3.67%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-22 12:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-08-22 14:55
Matchbook3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.18%1.8%2026-08-22 15:20