Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Mantova

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00 UTC

Final: Cesena FC 1–1 Mantova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 32.85%3.04fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.372%
Kelly -0.557%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%32.99%32.93%35.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.752.753.0140.32%36.35%36.36%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.867%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.54%38.47%38.59%39.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.402.5545.45%41.36%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.48%28.54%28.48%31.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.203.243.3733.90%31.25%30.86%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 32.85%; Mantova (Visit): 38.69%; Draw: 28.46%. For Cesena FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.01, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.18%EV -1.12%E -0.372%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.90%EV -3.67%E -1.47%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.92%EV -4.66%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.87%EV -2.76%E -0.933%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.60%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.87%EV -2.76%E -0.933%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.66%EV -5.60%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 12:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.66%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:55
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:44
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:50
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:45
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 12:35
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -6.38%E -2.24%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -4.44%E -1.80%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -4.66%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 12:30
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.38%E -2.24%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.38%E -2.24%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -6.38%E -2.24%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -16.04%E -5.44%K -8.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 12:39
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.81%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.19%EV -4.09%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 12:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:25
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:25
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:45
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:45
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 12:35
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:30
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 12:30
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 12:54
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 12:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.93%EV -9.86%E -4.23%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.08%EV -8.07%E -2.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 12:35
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -7.92%E -3.33%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -14.62%E -4.87%K -7.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.66%E -3.51%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -1.34%E -0.527%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 12:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -14.89%E -6.77%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -10.35%E -3.29%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-06 12:35
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.28%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.61%EV -14.89%E -6.77%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-06 12:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -12.95%E -4.89%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 12:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -12.95%E -4.89%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 12:25
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -13.93%E -5.32%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 12:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.23%EV -13.93%E -5.32%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -12.95%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-06 12:50
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -14.59%E -5.61%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 12:35
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -14.59%E -5.61%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -14.59%E -5.61%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 12:35
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.64%EV -14.59%E -5.61%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -5.21%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -10.35%E -3.29%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 12:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -16.23%E -6.37%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -5.99%E -2.46%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -16.23%E -6.37%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -5.99%E -2.46%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -16.23%E -6.37%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -5.99%E -2.46%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 12:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.70%EV -18.53%E -7.47%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.62%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -14.62%E -4.87%K -7.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-06 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-06 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-09-06 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-09-06 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-09-06 12:55
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.55%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.85%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.59%2.4%2026-09-06 12:55