Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC v Frosinone

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cesena FC (Local)

Prediction 35.29%2.83fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.660%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%35.20%35.31%36.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.622.652.8042.55%38.23%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frosinone (Visit)

Prediction 38.05%2.63fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.43%38.07%38.07%39.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.382.5545.45%41.87%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%26.73%26.63%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.393.453.6035.09%29.52%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cesena FC (Local): 35.29%; Frosinone (Visit): 38.05%; Draw: 26.66%. For Cesena FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.56%EV -1.19%E -0.425%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.25%EV -3.74%E -1.48%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -5.07%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.19%E -0.425%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.19%E -0.425%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 13:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -9.45%E -3.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 12:05
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.89%EV -6.41%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -9.87%E -2.92%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 13:35
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:00
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -11.35%E -4.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 13:05
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -4.72%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:35
BetUS🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.39%EV -5.42%E -2.02%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.93%E -3.28%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 13:55
Bovada🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.53%EV -5.78%E -2.16%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.94%EV -7.55%E -3.11%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 13:52
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -2.98%E -1.17%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.03%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.44%EV -2.98%E -1.17%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.52%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 12:05
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -4.89%E -1.95%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 12:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -4.89%E -1.95%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 13:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 12:05
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -4.89%E -1.95%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -14.67%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 12:03
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -11.73%E -5.06%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.23%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.10%EV -11.73%E -5.06%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 13:00
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -6.48%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 13:55
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.28%EV -7.19%E -2.73%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -12.50%E -5.43%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-14 13:05
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.54%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:35
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.54%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.54%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.54%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 13:35
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -9.45%E -3.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 13:34
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -17.34%E -5.59%K -8.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.25%E -3.17%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -17.34%E -5.59%K -8.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-14 12:05
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.70%EV -8.95%E -3.47%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.60%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 13:50
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.70%EV -8.95%E -3.47%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.60%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 12:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -10.01%E -3.93%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 13:45
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -10.01%E -3.93%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.46%EV -11.07%E -4.39%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.02%EV -10.59%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.52%EV -10.14%E -3.01%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 13:38
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.79%E -2.77%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -8.69%E -3.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 13:45
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -9.45%E -3.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-14 13:15
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -9.83%E -4.15%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -9.83%E -4.15%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-14 13:15
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.68%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.43%EV -9.45%E -3.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.90%EV -20.01%E -6.67%K -10.00%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-14 12:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.98%EV -11.78%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.61%EV -16.30%E -7.41%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.40%EV -17.34%E -5.59%K -8.26%G +0.000%17.7%2026-03-14 12:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 34.85%EV -12.83%E -5.20%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -14.40%E -6.40%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.67%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-14 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -13.54%E -5.53%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -12.50%E -5.43%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 12:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.47%EV -13.54%E -5.53%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.79%EV -12.50%E -5.43%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-14 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.65%EV -15.30%E -6.38%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.03%EV -14.40%E -6.40%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.33%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-14 12:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 34.57%EV -17.07%E -7.26%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 36.93%EV -16.30%E -7.41%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 28.50%EV -24.01%E -8.42%K -12.98%G +0.000%23.1%2026-03-14 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 13:50
Matchbook2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.70%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 13:50
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 35.13%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.54%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32%1.7%2026-03-14 13:50