La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Carrarese v Cesena FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Carrarese (Local)
Predicción 39.22%2.55momio equitativo
EV -1.94%
Ventaja -0.777%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.67%39.33%39.20%42.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.072.302.302.5048.31%43.55%43.48%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Cesena FC (Visitante)
Predicción 32.54%3.07momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -0.797%
Kelly -1.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.45%32.47%32.58%33.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.852.873.0040.00%35.04%34.90%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.24%3.54momio equitativo
EV -0.595%
Ventaja -0.169%
Kelly -0.236%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.19%28.20%28.21%29.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.253.5233.33%30.52%30.77%28.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.49%EV -1.94%E -0.777%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.18%EV -2.72%E -0.908%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.33%EV -7.37%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67%EV -2.73%E -1.10%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%EV -6.95%E -2.43%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -11.04%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67%EV -2.73%E -1.10%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%EV -6.95%E -2.43%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -11.04%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| DraftKings | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -3.90%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Bovada | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.22%EV -5.47%E -2.27%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -7.92%E -2.80%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -11.04%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetUS | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.22%EV -5.47%E -2.27%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.54%EV -7.92%E -2.80%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -11.04%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Coolbet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -5.64%E -1.95%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -1.16%E -0.331%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Fanatics | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.64%E -1.95%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| FanDuel | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.64%E -1.95%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betway | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.86%E -2.44%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.29%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| BetMGM | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -7.27%E -2.55%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| 888sport | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| William Hill | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -6.65%E -2.79%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| 1xBet | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.40%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.63%EV -5.32%E -1.83%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -0.595%E -0.169%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| NordicBet | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.14%EV -6.29%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Betsson | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.14%EV -6.29%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Bet Right | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -10.52%E -3.83%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| PlayUp | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -7.83%E -3.33%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -12.46%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.02%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Bet Victor | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -12.15%E -4.50%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -1.16%E -0.331%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| betfred_uk | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.52%E -3.83%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.29%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.46%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| SportsBet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.32%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.51%EV -6.62%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -12.46%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -10.52%E -3.83%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.22%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Neds | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.15%E -4.50%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.15%E -4.50%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Coral | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.15%E -4.50%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Sky Bet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.79%E -4.25%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -8.90%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -15.28%E -5.09%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%EV -11.75%E -5.22%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.13%EV -9.55%E -3.43%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.18%EV -10.48%E -3.31%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-01 12:58 |
| BoyleSports | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -11.75%E -5.22%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.23%EV -14.75%E -5.63%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.08%EV -12.46%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.74%EV -11.75%E -5.22%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.96%EV -18.66%E -7.46%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -15.28%E -5.09%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.61%EV -13.71%E -6.23%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.28%EV -12.15%E -4.50%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -12.46%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -13.71%E -6.23%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.83%EV -13.78%E -5.20%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -11.04%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Grosvenor | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Casumo | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| BetRivers | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Unibet | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| TABtouch | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -14.89%E -6.86%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -2.57%E -0.745%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -15.67%E -7.29%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -16.06%E -7.51%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-01 12:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -16.06%E -7.51%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -2.39%E -0.797%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.53%EV -16.85%E -7.95%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -4.02%E -1.36%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.40%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.72%EV -18.81%E -9.09%K -17.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -5.64%E -1.95%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -6.81%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.52% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.62% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.10% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.31% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.59% | 1.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |
| Smarkets | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.37% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.49% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.14% | 2.4% | 2026-05-01 13:00 |