Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carrarese v Benevento

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:02 UTC

Final: Carrarese 0–1 Benevento

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carrarese (Local)

Prediction 32.57%3.07fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.13%32.56%32.52%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.802.802.9539.22%35.69%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benevento (Visit)

Prediction 39.43%2.54fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.891%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.00%39.35%39.44%40.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.352.4847.62%42.66%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.00%3.57fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.806%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.10%28.04%30.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.5033.33%30.62%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carrarese (Local): 32.57%; Benevento (Visit): 39.43%; Draw: 28.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -3.91%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 10:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -3.91%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -16.01%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.76%EV -4.24%E -1.44%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.83%EV -2.21%E -0.891%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.41%EV -5.10%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 13:30
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -2.02%E -0.576%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 13:01
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 20:26
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -6.15%E -2.58%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 10:05
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 13:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.58%EV -3.79%E -1.55%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.58%EV -3.79%E -1.55%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 13:04
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.54%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.58%EV -3.79%E -1.55%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 13:05
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.36%EV -5.87%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.30%EV -6.15%E -2.58%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-17 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.19%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.15%E -2.58%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.33%EV -6.19%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.45%EV -6.94%E -2.94%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 12:49
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.17%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.33%E -3.12%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 10:00
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -7.17%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.33%E -3.12%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 10:13
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -7.17%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 04:20
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -7.17%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.56%EV -8.52%E -3.67%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 12:38
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -7.17%E -2.52%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.56%EV -8.52%E -3.67%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 12:39
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:30
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:30
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:31
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:31
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:31
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.18%E -1.72%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 15:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.33%E -3.12%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 19:10
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 10:10
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 21:49
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 21:50
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 10:00
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 10:00
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 13:05
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 13:10
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 16:05
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.36%E -2.23%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 16:05
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.41%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 13:10
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -8.80%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 10:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.31%E -4.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-17 07:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-18 04:19
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-18 04:20
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-18 04:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.06%EV -11.08%E -4.06%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.15%EV -14.04%E -6.44%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -11.81%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-15 10:05
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -7.33%E -3.12%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -10.41%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 15:31
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.42%EV -8.12%E -3.49%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -11.81%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.42%EV -8.12%E -3.49%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -11.81%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 15:30
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-16 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.70%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -13.25%E -6.02%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -9.01%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-17 07:05
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-14 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -11.28%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-18 10:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -12.05%E -4.46%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -17.19%E -8.19%K -15.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -13.21%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-18 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.52%EV -13.68%E -5.16%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.29%EV -8.52%E -3.67%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -11.81%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.56%EV -16.94%E -6.64%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 38.38%EV -12.07%E -5.41%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.06%EV -14.61%E -4.79%K -7.13%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-14 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-09-18 13:20
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-09-18 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-09-18 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-09-18 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-09-18 13:20