Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.16
assuming max odds 2.06
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avellino (Local): 24.71%; Palermo (Visit): 47.07%; Draw: 28.22%. For Avellino (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.81%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.24%EV +2.81%E +0.675%K +0.888%G +0.025% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.93%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.84%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV +1.32%E +0.323%K +0.427%G +0.006% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -12.93%E -6.99%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-13 14:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -1.15%E -0.287%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-13 14:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -1.15%E -0.287%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 14:56 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -1.15%E -0.287%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -1.15%E -0.287%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -3.62%E -0.928%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.32%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -8.57%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -3.62%E -0.928%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.84%EV -7.75%E -3.95%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 14:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -4.85%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.32%EV -5.40%E -2.68%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -4.85%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 12:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -4.85%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-13 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.89%EV -5.60%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.31%EV -5.40%E -2.68%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.80%EV -3.49%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.15%EV -6.81%E -3.44%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -7.28%E -3.69%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-13 14:51 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-13 14:56 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.33%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.33%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -7.33%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -6.81%E -3.44%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 12:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -9.80%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.83%EV -9.63%E -5.02%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.54%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -9.80%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.96%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-13 14:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -9.80%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.96%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%EV -9.80%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.59%EV -11.99%E -6.41%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.54%EV -16.75%E -5.68%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.51%E -1.71%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.23%E -0.351%K -0.492%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.02%EV -8.69%E -4.48%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.69%EV -6.81%E -3.44%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.85%EV -11.04%E -5.84%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-13 14:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.33%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.86%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.81%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -12.27%E -3.46%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.17%EV -12.46%E -6.70%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.12%EV -11.95%E -3.83%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-13 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 13:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.22%E -4.22%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 13:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 12:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 12:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.00%EV -10.57%E -5.56%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-13 12:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-13 08:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -13.50%E -3.86%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.89%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-13 14:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -5.87%E -2.93%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.02% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.26% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.34% | 1.7% | 2026-09-13 15:11 |