Language:English
Avellino v Padova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Avellino (Local)
Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.38%44.23%43.93%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.082.102.1952.63%48.06%47.62%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Padova (Visit)
Prediction 24.20%4.13fair odd
EV +2.60%
Edge +0.613%
Kelly +0.803%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 4.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%24.13%24.20%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.604.2428.57%26.84%27.78%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.67%3.16fair odd
EV -0.238%
Edge -0.076%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.18%31.64%31.87%34.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.892.953.1542.55%34.59%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avellino (Local): 44.13%; Padova (Visit): 24.20%; Draw: 31.67%. For Padova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.71%EV -4.68%E -2.16%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.78%EV +2.60%E +0.613%K +0.803%G +0.021% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.52%EV -5.94%E -2.00%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.50%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -0.787%E -0.192%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.50%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -0.787%E -0.192%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.39%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -0.787%E -0.192%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.38%EV -16.07%E -6.07%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 13:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.22%EV -6.88%E -3.26%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -2.00%E -0.493%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -9.74%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.47%EV -8.65%E -4.18%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.52%EV -10.37%E -3.67%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -9.74%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.55%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -11.32%E -4.04%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -3.21%E -0.802%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -17.66%E -6.79%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.40%EV -3.35%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.63%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.22%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.63%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.35%EV -16.15%E -8.50%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.38%EV -6.84%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.27%EV -15.44%E -5.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-03-07 13:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -3.41%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.25%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.79%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.25%EV -5.12%E -2.38%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -8.79%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.96%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.87%EV -17.66%E -6.79%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.38%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.86%EV -8.05%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.75%EV -20.82%E -8.33%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -9.26%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -0.238%E -0.076%K -0.111%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -11.32%E -4.04%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -10.47%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -1.19%E -0.381%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -11.32%E -4.04%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -11.32%E -4.04%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -11.32%E -4.04%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -8.79%E -3.05%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.30%EV -11.74%E -5.87%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -9.74%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -9.53%E -4.65%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.20%EV -12.91%E -4.69%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.80%EV -13.50%E -6.89%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -9.74%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 42.80%EV -16.15%E -8.50%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 22.59%EV -12.89%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 34.61%EV -25.57%E -10.88%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 23.0% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 13:57 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.44%E -3.04%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -14.10%E -3.97%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -7.32%E -3.49%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.16%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-07 13:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -8.65%E -4.18%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -15.31%E -4.37%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97% | 1.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97% | 1.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97% | 1.1% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.78% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84% | 1.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.70% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.53% | 2.5% | 2026-03-07 14:00 |