Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.35
assuming max odds 3.54
assuming max odds 3.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arezzo (Local): 40.96%; Südtirol (Visit): 28.42%; Draw: 30.62%. For Südtirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.620%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.83%EV -5.38%E -2.33%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.64%EV +0.620%E +0.175%K +0.244%G +0.002% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -0.517%E -0.148%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 12:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 12:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 13:03 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.31%EV -9.07%E -3.05%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.56%E -1.96%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 13:02 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 10:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 10:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 12:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -15.81%E -5.75%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-20 09:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-19 22:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 08:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 10:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 10:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 10:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 10:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 11:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 12:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.83%EV -10.71%E -4.91%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.91%EV -11.83%E -4.11%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.90%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.18%EV -13.66%E -4.85%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -11.32%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-20 12:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -11.32%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-20 12:52 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 04:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-20 12:57 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.30%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-20 10:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.88%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-18 04:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-18 04:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-18 04:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -13.98%E -6.66%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -15.81%E -5.75%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-09-20 07:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.22%EV -18.08%E -9.04%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.15%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.63%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-09-20 12:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 12:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.24% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 13:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86% | 1.4% | 2026-09-20 13:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.66% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 12:54 |