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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Arezzo v Südtirol

Inicio: 2026-09-20 13:05 UTC

Final: Arezzo 1–4 Südtirol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arezzo (Local)

Predicción 40.96%2.44momio equitativo
EV -3.74%
Ventaja -1.59%
Kelly -2.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.08%40.91%41.00%42.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.252.252.3550.00%44.48%44.44%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Südtirol (Visitante)

Predicción 28.42%3.52momio equitativo
EV +0.620%
Ventaja +0.175%
Kelly +0.244%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.64%28.35%28.53%29.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.243.233.5433.33%30.90%31.01%28.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.62%3.27momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -0.634%
Kelly -0.923%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.95%30.74%30.47%32.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.983.003.2036.36%33.61%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arezzo (Local): 40.96%; Südtirol (Visitante): 28.42%; Empate: 30.62%. Para Südtirol (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.52. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.54, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.620%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.83%EV -5.38%E -2.33%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.64%EV +0.620%E +0.175%K +0.244%G +0.002%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 13:04
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -0.517%E -0.148%K -0.207%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 12:58
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 12:34
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 12:47
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 13:03
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 12:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 12:34
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.77%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -9.99%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 12:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.31%EV -9.07%E -3.05%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 12:59
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.36%E -0.988%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 12:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.56%E -1.96%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 10:59
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -4.78%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 13:02
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 10:59
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 10:59
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -6.61%E -2.90%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 07:54
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 12:59
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -6.20%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 12:34
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 13:04
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -7.62%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -15.81%E -5.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 12:59
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 13:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -3.74%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 09:14
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 22:39
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 08:39
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 10:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 10:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 10:24
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 11:00
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 10:59
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 11:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.04%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 13:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 12:29
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 07:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 07:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 07:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.83%EV -10.71%E -4.91%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.91%EV -11.83%E -4.11%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 07:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.90%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.18%EV -13.66%E -4.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 12:59
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -11.32%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 12:55
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -11.32%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 12:52
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.84%E -3.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 04:24
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -11.89%E -3.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-20 12:57
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.30%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 10:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.88%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 13:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 04:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 04:24
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.89%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 04:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -13.98%E -6.66%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -15.81%E -5.75%K -9.03%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-20 07:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.22%EV -18.08%E -9.04%K -18.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.15%EV -14.73%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.63%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000%18.4%2026-09-20 12:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%0.5%2026-09-20 12:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%0.5%2026-09-20 12:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.24%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%1.0%2026-09-20 13:04
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%1.4%2026-09-20 13:05
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.66%2.1%2026-09-20 12:54