Language:English
Lazio v Sassuolo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lazio (Local)
Prediction 44.18%2.26fair odd
EV +0.740%
Edge +0.325%
Kelly +0.578%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%44.35%44.18%47.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.062.052.2852.91%48.49%48.78%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sassuolo (Visit)
Prediction 26.85%3.72fair odd
EV +6.06%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.05%
Growth +0.124%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%26.67%26.89%28.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.603.603.9531.25%27.77%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.97%3.45fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.394%
Kelly +0.551%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.55%28.99%28.93%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.74%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lazio (Local): 44.18%; Sassuolo (Visit): 26.85%; Draw: 28.97%. For Sassuolo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63%EV -9.86%E -4.84%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV +6.06%E +1.53%K +2.05%G +0.124% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV +1.38%E +0.394%K +0.551%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63%EV -9.86%E -4.84%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV +6.06%E +1.53%K +2.05%G +0.124% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV +1.38%E +0.394%K +0.551%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63%EV -9.86%E -4.84%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV +6.06%E +1.53%K +2.05%G +0.124% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV +1.38%E +0.394%K +0.551%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63%EV -9.86%E -4.84%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV +6.06%E +1.53%K +2.05%G +0.124% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV +1.38%E +0.394%K +0.551%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV +4.72%E +1.21%K +1.63%G +0.077% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-22 23:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV +4.72%E +1.21%K +1.63%G +0.077% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-22 23:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.11%EV -8.98%E -4.36%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67%EV +3.37%E +0.876%K +1.18%G +0.040% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.67%EV -12.96%E -6.58%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -13.40%E -6.84%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-22 23:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-22 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-22 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.73%EV -13.84%E -7.10%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV +2.03%E +0.535%K +0.726%G +0.015% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -2.97%E -0.886%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.91%EV -1.03%E -0.459%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 26.37%EV +0.152%E +0.041%K +0.056%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.72%EV -4.13%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-02-27 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -0.653%E -0.177%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 09:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%EV -15.61%E -8.17%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.54%EV -0.653%E -0.177%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -16.49%E -8.73%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -2.00%E -0.547%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -16.49%E -8.73%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -2.00%E -0.547%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-26 10:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.58%EV -2.80%E -0.774%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.69%EV -6.15%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-01 22:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-27 18:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-26 09:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.34%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-26 09:28 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.28%EV -5.89%E -2.76%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.34%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.38%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 14:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.28%EV -5.89%E -2.76%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.34%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.38%EV -7.02%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 14:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-27 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.41%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-27 18:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-27 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-27 15:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-27 16:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.02%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-27 15:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV +0.740%E +0.325%K +0.578%G +0.004% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.69%EV -6.29%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.92%EV -6.44%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-03 12:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -1.91%E -0.861%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -1.91%E -0.861%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.48%EV -1.47%E -0.659%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 04:26 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.37%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-27 15:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.76%EV -10.31%E -5.08%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.57%EV -8.17%E -2.39%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.67%EV -8.18%E -2.58%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-27 17:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 06:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 08:13 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-02-27 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.19%EV -13.84%E -7.10%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -8.71%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -11.66%E -3.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-02-26 09:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.05%E -3.00%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -5.86%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-27 15:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.31%E -2.28%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-27 15:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.10%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-26 08:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.21%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.99%EV -11.66%E -3.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-02-27 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.63%E -5.82%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-27 15:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -14.08%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-01 21:47 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.34% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66% | 5.4% | 2026-02-27 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.34% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66% | 5.4% | 2026-02-27 11:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.42% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78% | 6.6% | 2026-02-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 19.46% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 39.30% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 41.24% | 140.1% | 2026-02-27 11:14 |