The School of Odds

Inter Milan v Monza

2026-08-22 16:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Inter Milan (Local)

Prediction 76.86%1.30fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -12.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.43%76.75%76.85%78.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.211.2688%83%83%79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Monza (Visit)

Prediction 7.85%12.74fair odd
EV +9.86%
Edge +0.705%
Kelly +0.759%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.80%7.96%7.90%9.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.9812.5014.0011%8%8%7%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 15.29%6.54fair odd
EV +7.03%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.48%15.28%15.25%17.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.256.016.007.0019%17%17%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +7.03%E +1.00%K +1.17%G +0.082%6.0%2026-07-25 06:05
1xBet1.26I 79.37%NM 77.95%EV -3.15%E -2.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%13.40I 7.46%NM 7.33%EV +5.16%E +0.385%K +0.416%G +0.021%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.72%EV +1.98%E +0.298%K +0.350%G +0.007%1.8%2026-07-16 00:19
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 77.13%EV -3.92%E -3.14%K -15.69%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.03%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.83%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-08 05:10
BetMGM1.24I 80.65%NM 77.27%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.74%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-06 17:04
BetOnline.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.46%EV +0.055%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.62%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 77.92%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.46%EV +0.055%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.62%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 20:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Neds1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Betway1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -21.53%E -2.15%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 00:25
TAB1.16I 86.21%NM 78.88%EV -10.84%E -9.34%K -67.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -0.615%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 19:00
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 77.66%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.93%EV -1.38%E -0.214%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 00:19
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%11.35I 8.81%NM 8.18%EV -10.93%E -0.963%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 14.42%EV -1.53%E -0.238%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 15:30
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.98%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV +9.86%E +0.705%K +0.759%G +0.075%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.44%E -0.710%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 05:59
Bovada1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -4.44%E -0.710%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 16:44
Winamax (DE)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.07%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -21.53%E -2.15%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -4.44%E -0.710%K -0.845%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-22 21:39
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -9.30%E -7.88%K -51.68%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -4.44%E -0.710%K -0.845%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-13 12:14
Codere (IT)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.73%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV -5.20%E -0.839%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 21:39
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.95%EV -5.46%E -4.44%K -23.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.77%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-23 05:59
betfred_uk1.22I 81.97%NM 77.09%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 06:20
Caesars1.22I 81.97%NM 77.09%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-16 00:52
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 05:59
BetUS1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 21:40
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Bet Victor1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 12:48
betano_uk1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-12 08:38
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -17.60%E -1.68%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 21:39
FanDuel1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -9.30%E -7.88%K -51.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 05:59
DraftKings1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -8.53%E -7.17%K -44.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -17.60%E -1.68%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-15 18:55
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 76.37%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.05%EV -9.79%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 19:00
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.37%EV -4.69%E -3.78%K -19.54%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.05%EV -9.79%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.20%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.50%EV -25.45%E -2.68%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.30%EV -9.79%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-22 21:39
Unibet1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
TABtouch1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Casumo1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:09
Grosvenor1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:35
betPARX1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:35
Bally Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:35
ATG (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:35
BetRivers1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:09
PMU (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.60%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.42%EV -1.91%E -0.153%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 00:10
NetBet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 76.91%EV -12.38%E -10.86%K -88.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.97%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.12%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-22 13:45
Unibet (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -6.23%E -5.10%K -28.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -5.83%E -0.486%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -15.90%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 21:39
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -13.68%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -15.90%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-23 13:30
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 75.35%EV -8.53%E -7.17%K -44.91%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.34%EV -15.64%E -1.45%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -15.90%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-25 02:24
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 74.43%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -17.60%E -1.68%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.99%EV -18.96%E -3.58%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 74.43%EV -7.00%E -5.78%K -33.32%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -17.60%E -1.68%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.99%EV -18.96%E -3.58%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-22 00:09
Unibet (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 74.75%EV -10.07%E -8.61%K -59.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.75%EV -21.53%E -2.15%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.50%EV -18.96%E -3.58%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 02:25
PlayUp1.20I 83.33%NM 75.71%EV -7.76%E -6.47%K -38.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV +2.02%E +0.155%K +0.168%G +0.003%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -19.73%E -3.76%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-24 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.23I 81.30%NM 78.84%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.69%3.1%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 78.84%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.69%3.1%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 78.84%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.69%3.1%2026-07-25 09:10
Smarkets1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.24%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%5.6%2026-07-25 00:50