The School of Odds
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Genoa v Napoli

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genoa (Local)

Prediction 18.42%5.43fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.297%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.18%18.22%18.46%20.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.965.005.5023.81%20.17%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Napoli (Visit)

Prediction 55.22%1.81fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.12%55.44%55.22%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.661.671.7765.36%60.36%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.36%3.79fair odd
EV -0.623%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.225%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.34%26.32%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.553.7732.26%28.74%28.17%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genoa (Local): 18.42%; Napoli (Visit): 55.22%; Draw: 26.36%. For Genoa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV +1.34%E +0.243%K +0.297%G +0.004%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.14%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-19 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV +1.34%E +0.243%K +0.297%G +0.004%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -7.79%E -4.67%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-25 04:59
1xBet🎯5.42I 18.45%NM 18.18%EV -0.137%E -0.025%K -0.031%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.68%EV -2.27%E -1.28%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 26.14%EV -0.623%E -0.165%K -0.225%G +0.000%1.5%2026-06-25 12:53
Marathon Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.17%EV -2.35%E -0.443%K -0.546%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.66%EV -4.48%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.17%EV -3.00%E -0.814%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-20 23:59
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.35%EV -2.35%E -0.443%K -0.546%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.11%EV -11.10%E -6.90%K -18.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 11:10
Pinnacle🎯5.06I 19.76%NM 18.54%EV -6.77%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.28%EV -5.89%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-19 15:00
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.16%EV -8.34%E -5.03%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -2.47%E -0.667%K -0.914%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-19 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 11:10
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 12:39
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.79%E -4.67%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 11:10
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -8.90%E -5.39%K -13.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-19 11:09
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.88%E -1.58%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.79%E -4.67%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.38%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-25 04:27
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -12.48%E -2.63%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -10.55%E -6.51%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.38%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-25 04:45
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -13.40%E -2.85%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -7.24%E -4.31%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-25 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -13.40%E -2.85%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.63%EV -11.10%E -6.90%K -18.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.7%2026-06-25 04:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 18.85%EV -14.32%E -3.08%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.43%EV -11.10%E -6.90%K -18.20%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.72%EV -13.54%E -4.13%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-25 04:27
NetBet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.37%EV -15.25%E -3.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.23%EV -15.52%E -10.14%K -29.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -15.65%E -4.89%K -7.11%G +0.000%18.3%2026-06-22 20:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -17.09%E -3.80%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.12%EV -10.55%E -6.51%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.76%EV -18.28%E -5.90%K -8.71%G +0.000%16.2%2026-06-19 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.03%EV -22.62%E -5.38%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 53.25%EV -12.76%E -8.08%K -22.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -16.97%E -5.39%K -7.89%G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-25 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.90I 20.41%NM 18.41%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%10.9%2026-06-24 08:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-06-25 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-06-25 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-06-25 17:30