The School of OddsAS Roma v Fiorentina
Head to Head
Option 1: AS Roma (Local)
Odds
1.4369.93%Min
1.4967.03%Mean
1.5066.67%Median
1.5664.10%Max
Consensus probabilities
58.99%1.695Min
63.45%1.576Max
62.16%1.609Mean
62.20%1.608Median
62.16%1.609IQM
62.31%1.605Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.56 under the IQM model: 62.16%
EV -3.03%Edge -1.94%Kelly -5.41%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Fiorentina (Visit)
Odds
4.8020.83%Min
6.0516.54%Mean
6.5015.38%Median
6.7514.81%Max
Consensus probabilities
13.99%7.146Min
17.57%5.690Max
15.20%6.578Mean
15.17%6.590Median
15.17%6.592IQM
15.10%6.623Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.75 under the IQM model: 15.17%
EV +2.40%Edge +0.355%Kelly +0.417%Growth +0.010%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.6027.78%Min
4.0524.67%Mean
4.0025.00%Median
4.4022.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
21.43%4.667Min
23.70%4.219Max
22.64%4.417Mean
22.62%4.420Median
22.67%4.411IQM
22.59%4.426Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.40 under the IQM model: 22.67%
EV -0.254%Edge -0.058%Kelly -0.075%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | AS Roma (Local) | Fiorentina (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betr (AU) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 62.97%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81% NM 13.99%EV +2.40% E +0.355% K +0.417% G +0.010% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.04%EV -7.06% E -1.72% K -2.28% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-30 02:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.56I 64.10% NM 63.00%EV -3.03% E -1.94% K -5.41% G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93% NM 14.67%EV +1.64% E +0.244% K +0.287% G +0.005% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 22.34%EV -0.254% E -0.058% K -0.075% G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-07-04 05:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.53I 65.36% NM 62.92%EV -4.89% E -3.20% K -9.23% G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27% NM 14.70%EV -0.638% E -0.097% K -0.115% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.39%EV -2.52% E -0.586% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 05:05 |
| Caesars | 1.53I 65.36% NM 61.81%EV -4.89% E -3.20% K -9.23% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.55%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.64%EV -9.32% E -2.33% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 05:04 |
| betfred_uk | 1.50I 66.67% NM 62.98%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.53%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.49%EV -4.79% E -1.14% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.48I 67.57% NM 63.29%EV -8.00% E -5.41% K -16.67% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.41%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.30%EV -4.79% E -1.14% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50I 66.67% NM 62.28%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.37%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.35%EV -9.32% E -2.33% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.47I 68.03% NM 63.45%EV -8.62% E -5.87% K -18.35% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.35%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.21%EV -4.79% E -1.14% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 05:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.23%EV -10.49% E -7.28% K -23.84% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.01%EV -1.40% E -0.215% K -0.254% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -9.32% E -2.33% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-26 05:08 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 62.86%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.71%EV -8.98% E -1.50% K -1.80% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV -0.254% E -0.058% K -0.075% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 12:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.52I 65.79% NM 60.81%EV -5.52% E -3.63% K -10.61% G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.08%EV -12.77% E -2.22% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.11%EV -9.32% E -2.33% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 01:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.48I 67.57% NM 61.27%EV -8.00% E -5.41% K -16.67% G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39% NM 15.77%EV -12.77% E -2.22% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.96%EV -10.46% E -2.65% K -3.54% G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-03 19:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50I 66.67% NM 60.87%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86% NM 16.30%EV -15.05% E -2.69% K -3.27% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.83%EV -9.32% E -2.33% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-04 05:04 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.52I 65.79% NM 60.71%EV -5.52% E -3.63% K -10.61% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.78%EV -16.57% E -3.01% K -3.68% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.51%EV -7.06% E -1.72% K -2.28% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-04 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 60.18%EV -9.25% E -6.33% K -20.10% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 16.27%EV -18.08% E -3.35% K -4.11% G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81% NM 23.55%EV -15.44% E -4.14% K -5.66% G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-04 01:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 60.06%EV -9.25% E -6.33% K -20.10% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 16.24%EV -18.08% E -3.35% K -4.11% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 23.70%EV -16.12% E -4.36% K -5.97% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-04 01:05 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44% NM 59.81%EV -10.49% E -7.28% K -23.84% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 17.22%EV -24.15% E -4.83% K -6.04% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 22.97%EV -14.99% E -4.00% K -5.45% G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-07-04 05:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.43I 69.93% NM 58.99%EV -11.11% E -7.77% K -25.84% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 17.57%EV -27.19% E -5.66% K -7.15% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 23.43%EV -18.39% E -5.11% K -7.07% G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-07-04 01:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | AS Roma (Local) | Fiorentina (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.49I 67.11% | 6.20I 16.13% | 3.75I 26.67% | 9.9% | 2026-07-03 05:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.53I 65.36% | 4.70I 21.28% | 3.20I 31.25% | 17.9% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.53I 65.36% | 4.70I 21.28% | 3.20I 31.25% | 17.9% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.53I 65.36% | 1.27I 78.74% | 3.20I 31.25% | 75.3% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |