The School of Odds

AS Roma v Fiorentina

2026-08-24 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

AS Roma (Local)

Prediction 61.23%1.63fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.71%61.27%61.22%63.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.431.521.521.5970%66%66%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Fiorentina (Visit)

Prediction 15.71%6.37fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.321%
Kelly +0.379%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.17%15.70%15.75%17.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.946.006.5020%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.07%4.33fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.341%
Kelly +0.442%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.03%23.02%24.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.004.4027%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.32%EV -6.94%E -4.56%K -13.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV +2.08%E +0.321%K +0.379%G +0.008%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-24 09:54
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +2.08%E +0.321%K +0.379%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.11%E -0.741%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 09:53
SportsBet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -8.77%E -5.89%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV +2.08%E +0.321%K +0.379%G +0.008%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -1.96%E -0.461%K -0.603%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 09:55
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -9.39%E -6.34%K -19.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV +2.08%E +0.321%K +0.379%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.11%E -0.741%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 09:55
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -9.39%E -6.34%K -19.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +2.08%E +0.321%K +0.379%G +0.008%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -10.03%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 09:55
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02%EV -2.65%E -1.67%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 15.31%EV +1.14%E +0.177%K +0.210%G +0.002%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.67%EV +0.348%E +0.080%K +0.104%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-17 04:30
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 61.18%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.82%EV +0.513%E +0.080%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.88%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 01:40
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.18%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.82%EV +0.513%E +0.080%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.88%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 01:40
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 62.08%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.27%EV -1.06%E -0.168%K -0.200%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.64%EV -1.96%E -0.461%K -0.603%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 04:24
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 60.99%EV -4.49%E -2.88%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -1.84%E -0.295%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 05:24
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -1.84%E -0.295%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 09:55
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.49%EV -3.41%E -0.555%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.11%E -0.741%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.49%EV -3.41%E -0.555%K -0.663%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.11%E -0.741%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 20:25
Codere (IT)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -3.87%E -2.47%K -6.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 13:44
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -5.71%E -3.71%K -10.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 05:49
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.442%G +0.007%6.1%2026-07-22 12:14
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-16 20:19
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.03%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 09:35
betano_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.32%E -4.13%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.03%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 09:34
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -11.83%E -8.22%K -26.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -5.77%E -0.961%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-24 09:54
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 61.63%EV -6.94%E -4.56%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.80%EV -6.87%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -4.27%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 05:25
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.63%EV -6.94%E -4.56%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.80%EV -6.87%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -4.27%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -8.91%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 02:54
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -8.91%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 02:54
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.91%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 09:55
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.69%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -3.11%E -0.741%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 05:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -5.10%E -3.29%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -9.70%E -1.69%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 02:54
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.70%E -1.69%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 04:24
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.89%EV -6.94%E -4.56%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -9.70%E -1.69%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -13.49%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 09:30
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.62%E -2.48%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 00:25
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 60.00%EV -7.55%E -5.00%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.47%EV -13.62%E -2.48%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-16 16:10
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.94%E -4.56%K -13.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -15.19%E -2.81%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 08:25
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 60.93%EV -12.45%E -8.70%K -28.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.14%EV -15.19%E -2.81%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -12.34%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-22 13:45
Unibet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.71%EV -10.00%E -6.80%K -21.27%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.56%EV -16.76%E -3.16%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -14.65%E -3.96%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-22 13:44
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.73%EV -10.00%E -6.80%K -21.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -17.55%E -3.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.54%EV -13.95%E -3.74%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-22 13:44
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.12%EV -8.16%E -5.44%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.34%EV -18.33%E -3.53%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-22 13:44
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 59.99%EV -11.83%E -8.22%K -26.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -21.47%E -4.29%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -12.34%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-23 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-07-25 12:50
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 61.36%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%9.4%2026-07-24 09:55