La escuela de los momios

AS Roma v Fiorentina

2026-08-24 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AS Roma (Local)

Predicción 61.20%1.63momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -1.69%
Kelly -4.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.88%61.21%61.16%62.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.521.521.5969.93%65.75%65.79%62.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fiorentina (Visitante)

Predicción 15.76%6.35momio equitativo
EV +1.47%
Ventaja +0.228%
Kelly +0.270%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.82%15.81%15.79%17.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.876.006.4420.00%17.05%16.67%15.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.05%4.34momio equitativo
EV +1.40%
Ventaja +0.318%
Kelly +0.412%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.43%22.99%23.05%24.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.034.004.4027.03%24.79%25.00%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +1.40%E +0.318%K +0.412%G +0.006%6.1%2026-07-22 12:14
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02%EV -2.69%E -1.69%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 15.31%EV +1.47%E +0.228%K +0.270%G +0.004%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.67%EV +0.248%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-17 04:30
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 62.08%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.27%EV -0.739%E -0.117%K -0.139%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.64%EV -2.06%E -0.484%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 04:24
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -1.53%E -0.244%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -2.06%E -0.484%K -0.633%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 10:06
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%EV -5.75%E -3.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.49%EV -3.10%E -0.504%K -0.602%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.21%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%EV -5.75%E -3.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.49%EV -3.10%E -0.504%K -0.602%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.21%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 20:25
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.40%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -3.21%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 05:50
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -6.37%E -4.16%K -12.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -3.21%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 10:10
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -9.43%E -6.37%K -19.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -3.21%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 10:05
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 61.63%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.80%EV -6.57%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -4.36%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 05:25
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.63%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.80%EV -6.57%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -4.36%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 00:00
Codere (IT)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.53%E -2.90%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.51%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 00:05
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.11%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.51%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 10:05
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.26%EV -5.75%E -3.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.51%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 05:49
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -14.92%E -2.76%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -5.51%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 08:25
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 60.99%EV -4.53%E -2.90%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -1.53%E -0.244%K -0.291%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 05:24
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-16 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -8.62%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 02:54
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -8.62%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 02:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -9.40%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 02:54
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 10:10
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 10:05
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -9.40%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 04:24
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.34%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 00:09
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.34%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 00:25
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.31%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.07%EV -16.49%E -3.11%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -7.82%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 00:03
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 61.18%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.82%EV +0.836%E +0.131%K +0.155%G +0.001%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.97%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 01:40
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.18%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.82%EV +0.836%E +0.131%K +0.155%G +0.001%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.97%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 01:40
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.37%E -4.16%K -12.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.12%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 09:35
betano_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.37%E -4.16%K -12.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.47%E -0.911%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.12%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-22 09:34
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.40%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.12%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 10:05
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 60.00%EV -7.59%E -5.03%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.47%EV -13.34%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-16 16:10
Betclic (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.40%EV -9.43%E -6.37%K -19.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.34%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.34%EV -11.74%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 00:04
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.11%EV -12.49%E -8.73%K -29.04%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.89%EV -13.34%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-26 00:14
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 59.99%EV -11.87%E -8.25%K -26.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -21.22%E -4.24%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-23 13:30
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.89%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -9.40%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -13.58%E -3.62%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 09:30
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.88%EV -10.65%E -7.29%K -23.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.49%EV -16.49%E -3.11%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.63%EV -14.73%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-26 00:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.00%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%4.1%2026-07-26 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.00%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%4.1%2026-07-26 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.00%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%4.1%2026-07-26 10:10
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 61.36%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%9.4%2026-07-24 09:55