The School of Odds
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Parma v Cremonese

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 16:00 UTC

Final: Parma 0–2 Cremonese

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Parma (Local)

Prediction 40.28%2.48fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%40.28%40.27%42.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.262.252.3946.73%44.25%44.44%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cremonese (Visit)

Prediction 30.30%3.30fair odd
EV -0.026%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.011%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.53%30.26%30.28%31.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.3034.48%32.10%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.42%3.40fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.46%29.45%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.123.3033.33%31.80%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Parma (Local): 40.28%; Cremonese (Visit): 30.30%; Draw: 29.42%. For Cremonese (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.301. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.300, with an expected value of -0.026%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.28%EV -3.72%E -1.56%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.18%EV -3.36%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.53%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 15:55
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -4.53%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -4.53%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.34%E -2.27%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.09%E -1.96%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.85%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.42%EV -5.74%E -2.45%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.03%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.85%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 15:40
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.06%E -0.955%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.91%E -0.881%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 15:30
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.85%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-01 15:45
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 15:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 15:30
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.35%E -3.20%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.14%E -4.19%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 15:55
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.95%EV -2.15%E -0.665%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.50%EV -6.73%E -2.12%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 15:50
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.09%E -1.96%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 15:30
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -3.06%E -0.955%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-01 15:29
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.26%E -3.36%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 15:30
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -8.20%E -2.63%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 15:54
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -8.20%E -2.63%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.11%E -3.04%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-01 15:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -9.36%E -4.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -10.63%E -3.60%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -7.32%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-01 15:35
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -10.17%E -4.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -10.17%E -4.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -10.17%E -4.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 15:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -10.17%E -4.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -10.17%E -4.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.38%E -1.35%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.38%E -5.17%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -3.06%E -0.955%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.38%E -5.17%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.09%E -1.96%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -11.73%E -3.91%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-01 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -13.39%E -6.23%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -13.39%E -6.23%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -8.79%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.00%EV -13.79%E -6.45%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -10.26%E -3.36%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 15:50
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.00%EV -13.79%E -6.45%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -4.57%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -10.26%E -3.36%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.99%1.0%2026-09-01 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.99%1.0%2026-09-01 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.90%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.99%1.0%2026-09-01 15:55