The School of Odds
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Palermo v Mantova

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 16:01 UTC

Final: Palermo 5–2 Mantova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palermo (Local)

Prediction 44.94%2.23fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%45.22%44.96%47.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1652.36%48.85%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mantova (Visit)

Prediction 28.26%3.54fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.668%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.61%27.96%28.32%29.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.273.6031.25%30.11%30.53%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.13%26.82%26.72%28.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.433.453.6030.30%29.19%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palermo (Local): 44.94%; Mantova (Visit): 28.26%; Draw: 26.80%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -12.37%E -6.34%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV +1.74%E +0.482%K +0.668%G +0.012%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -1.09%E -0.311%K -0.436%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.38%EV -8.77%E -4.32%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -2.50%E -0.725%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 16:00
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -7.42%E -3.60%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 16:00
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -3.92%E -1.15%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 16:00
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.50%EV -2.93%E -1.36%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.35%EV -4.20%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.15%EV -5.13%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 15:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.08%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.26%EV -5.33%E -1.59%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 15:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.52%E -3.14%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.74%E -2.04%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:45
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -3.38%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.52%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 15:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 15:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -5.62%E -2.68%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 15:59
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 15:59
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 15:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.12%E -5.06%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.57%EV -11.47%E -5.82%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.57%EV -11.47%E -5.82%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 16:00
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -14.16%E -7.42%K -15.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -8.15%E -2.51%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 15:59
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.87%E -3.84%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.61%EV -11.02%E -5.56%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -9.57%E -2.99%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.59%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.09%0.3%2026-09-03 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-09-03 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00%2.1%2026-09-03 16:00