Language:English
Lazio v Mantova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lazio (Local)
Prediction 74.28%1.35fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -11.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.67%74.11%74.38%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.251.3081.97%79.59%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mantova (Visit)
Prediction 9.18%10.89fair odd
EV +10.17%
Edge +0.848%
Kelly +0.925%
Growth +0.094%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.94%9.17%9.19%10.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.9010.0012.0011.76%10.10%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.54%6.05fair odd
EV -0.777%
Edge -0.130%
Kelly -0.155%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.34%16.72%16.43%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.475.506.0020.00%18.27%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lazio (Local): 74.28%; Mantova (Visit): 9.18%; Draw: 16.54%. For Mantova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.89. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +10.17%E +0.848%K +0.925%G +0.094% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -0.777%E -0.130%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.35%EV -4.92%E -3.84%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 11.08I 9.03%NM 8.59%EV +1.72%E +0.156%K +0.171%G +0.003% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.06%EV -7.72%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV +0.990%E +0.090%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.25%EV -6.40%E -5.08%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.58%EV +0.072%E +0.007%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.17%EV -9.87%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -3.60%E -0.343%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -4.91%E -0.854%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -3.60%E -0.343%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-16 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -3.60%E -0.343%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-16 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.51%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -3.60%E -0.343%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -10.70%E -1.98%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.52%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.54%EV -3.60%E -0.343%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -17.31%E -3.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.92%E -3.84%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -0.777%E -0.130%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.92%E -3.84%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -0.777%E -0.130%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -6.40%E -5.08%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -4.08%E -0.704%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.91%E -0.854%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -0.777%E -0.130%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -12.35%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 17:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.31%E -3.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.31%E -3.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.31%E -3.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.15%E -5.72%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -8.19%E -0.819%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.31%E -3.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 19:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -3.43%E -2.64%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -3.43%E -2.64%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -3.43%E -2.64%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -3.43%E -2.64%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -3.43%E -2.64%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.83%EV -5.66%E -4.46%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -4.91%E -0.854%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -9.38%E -7.69%K -42.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -12.78%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -9.05%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.94%EV -8.63%E -7.02%K -37.54%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -17.37%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -5.74%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -5.66%E -4.46%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -21.96%E -2.58%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -14.01%E -2.69%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.91%EV -6.40%E -5.08%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -21.96%E -2.58%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -14.01%E -2.69%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.91%EV -6.40%E -5.08%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -21.96%E -2.58%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%EV -14.01%E -2.69%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.67%EV -6.40%E -5.08%K -24.63%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -21.96%E -2.58%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -15.66%E -3.07%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-16 17:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.91% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.09% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.00% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 1.1% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 1.1% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |