Language:English
Cremonese v Sampdoria
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cremonese (Local)
Prediction 41.84%2.39fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.49%41.86%41.90%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.162.202.3049.50%46.23%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sampdoria (Visit)
Prediction 28.69%3.49fair odd
EV +3.28%
Edge +0.912%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%28.69%28.54%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.6033.33%30.31%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%29.45%29.56%31.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.153.3033.90%31.63%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cremonese (Local): 41.84%; Sampdoria (Visit): 28.69%; Draw: 29.47%. For Sampdoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +3.28%E +0.912%K +1.26%G +0.041% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 18:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +3.28%E +0.912%K +1.26%G +0.041% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +3.28%E +0.912%K +1.26%G +0.041% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +3.28%E +0.912%K +1.26%G +0.041% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -12.13%E -5.78%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV +3.28%E +0.912%K +1.26%G +0.041% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.80%EV -3.76%E -1.64%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -1.02%E -0.296%K -0.417%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -6.59%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-17 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.37%EV -7.53%E -3.41%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.22%EV -1.31%E -0.380%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.40%EV -9.24%E -3.00%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-17 18:38 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -2.46%E -0.722%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -13.07%E -4.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-17 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -15.48%E -7.66%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -2.46%E -0.722%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -15.48%E -7.66%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -2.46%E -0.722%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -14.64%E -7.18%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -2.46%E -0.722%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-17 18:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.53%EV -15.48%E -7.66%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -2.46%E -0.722%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -3.89%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-17 18:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.33%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -6.76%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.76%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.60%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.85%E -2.60%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -2.75%E -0.835%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.63%E -3.06%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -7.18%E -2.28%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-17 18:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -14.22%E -6.94%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-17 18:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 18:43 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.95%E -3.61%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -4.23%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 18:43 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 18:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 18:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.04%E -4.67%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.65%E -2.79%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 18:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.65% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.18% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.65% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.5% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 0.9% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |