Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atromitos Athens v PAOK Thessaloniki

Inicio: 2026-08-30 17:15 UTC

Final: Atromitos Athens 1–2 PAOK Thessaloniki

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atromitos Athens (Local)

Predicción 17.92%5.58momio equitativo
EV +3.56%
Ventaja +0.616%
Kelly +0.744%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.42%17.81%18.09%18.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.705.115.005.7821.28%19.59%20.00%17.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

PAOK Thessaloniki (Visitante)

Predicción 58.89%1.70momio equitativo
EV -3.41%
Ventaja -2.08%
Kelly -5.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.52%58.92%58.77%60.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.571.571.6467.57%63.78%63.69%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.19%4.31momio equitativo
EV -2.61%
Ventaja -0.620%
Kelly -0.814%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.15%23.27%23.14%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.853.854.2028.99%25.95%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atromitos Athens (Local): 17.92%; PAOK Thessaloniki (Visitante): 58.89%; Empate: 23.19%. Para Atromitos Athens (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.58. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.78, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.56%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯5.78I 17.30%NM 16.59%EV +3.56%E +0.616%K +0.744%G +0.026%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.31%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.11%EV -3.76%E -0.907%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 17:10
1xBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV +2.12%E +0.373%K +0.452%G +0.010%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.58%EV -7.94%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +0.333%E +0.059%K +0.072%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +0.333%E +0.059%K +0.072%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 17:05
Suprabets🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +0.333%E +0.059%K +0.072%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:59
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:10
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -8.71%E -5.62%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 17:08
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -8.71%E -5.62%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 17:09
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -1.46%E -0.265%K -0.324%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -10.48%E -6.90%K -20.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 17:09
FanDuel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:59
SportsBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV -5.04%E -0.951%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -8.71%E -5.62%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 17:00
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.02%EV -4.59%E -2.83%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -2.61%E -0.620%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 16:55
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.15%EV -6.36%E -4.00%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.92%E -1.20%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:29
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
Casumo🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:29
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.05%EV -3.41%E -2.08%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:30
BetUS🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.77%EV -6.83%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.84%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -8.40%E -2.13%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 17:10
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -4.59%E -2.83%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:50
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -2.61%E -0.620%K -0.814%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 17:00
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 17:04
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 17:00
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -5.77%E -3.61%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 17:05
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.92%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.77%EV -10.72%E -2.78%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -9.30%E -6.04%K -17.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.24%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.56%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:00
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 16:55
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -11.66%E -7.77%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 17:10
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.01%EV -11.66%E -7.77%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.64%EV -11.66%E -7.77%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -14.20%E -3.84%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-30 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.35%EV -6.95%E -4.40%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -13.04%E -3.48%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.25%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -10.48%E -6.90%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.89%E -6.47%K -18.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.89%E -6.47%K -18.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 17:00
Neds🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.89%E -6.47%K -18.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 17:00
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.89%E -6.47%K -18.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.56%E -2.45%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.18%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.24%EV -14.66%E -3.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 16:59
Virgin Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.52%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -17.68%E -4.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 16:34
LiveScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.49%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.52%EV -7.54%E -4.80%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -17.68%E -4.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 16:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -14.00%E -2.92%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.68%EV -8.13%E -5.21%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.91%EV -17.68%E -4.98%K -6.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-30 16:34
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -14.90%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.98%EV -9.89%E -6.47%K -18.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -11.88%E -3.13%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 17:00
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.23%EV -14.90%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.72%EV -11.66%E -7.77%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.05%EV -16.52%E -4.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-30 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.27%EV -15.79%E -3.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 56.85%EV -11.07%E -7.33%K -21.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.88%EV -20.00%E -5.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-30 16:34
NetBet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.24%EV -15.79%E -3.36%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 57.94%EV -12.84%E -8.67%K -26.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -16.52%E -4.59%K -6.35%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-30 17:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.52%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-08-30 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-08-30 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-08-30 17:10
Smarkets◎5.80I 17.24%NM 16.78%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17%2.8%2026-08-30 17:10
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.30%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.05%4.0%2026-08-30 17:10