Language:English
Aris Thessaloniki v Atromitos Athens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aris Thessaloniki (Local)
Prediction 48.80%2.05fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.68%48.70%48.88%50.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.891.911.9758.82%52.96%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atromitos Athens (Visit)
Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV +0.416%
Edge +0.089%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.01%21.46%21.29%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.174.104.7026.67%23.99%24.39%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.83%3.35fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.675%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.84%29.83%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.073.103.3036.36%32.61%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aris Thessaloniki (Local): 48.80%; Atromitos Athens (Visit): 21.37%; Draw: 29.83%. For Atromitos Athens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.416%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.86%E -1.96%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV +0.416%E +0.089%K +0.113%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.52%EV -5.73%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.96%EV -3.86%E -1.96%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV +0.416%E +0.089%K +0.113%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.52%EV -5.73%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -3.86%E -1.96%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.53%EV -0.011%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.70%EV -6.62%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -10.69%E -5.84%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -1.72%E -0.374%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 14:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.05%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -1.55%E -0.470%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 14:32 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.41%EV -5.81%E -3.01%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 30.83%EV -9.61%E -3.17%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.63%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.75%EV -6.92%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 14:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -5.99%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.79%EV -9.23%E -4.96%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -7.49%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -9.72%E -5.25%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -7.49%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.61%EV -7.70%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.26%EV -4.83%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.64%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.20%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -8.25%E -4.39%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -10.27%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -10.27%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-03-07 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -12.40%E -3.03%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -12.40%E -3.03%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -12.40%E -3.03%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.41%EV -10.20%E -5.55%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -12.40%E -3.03%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.06%EV -7.76%E -4.11%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.16%EV -12.40%E -3.03%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -9.01%E -2.95%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.25%EV -7.76%E -4.11%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.25%E -4.39%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.25%E -4.39%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -6.03%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 14:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.67%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -9.01%E -2.95%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.59%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.17%EV -11.99%E -4.07%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 48.94%EV -17.04%E -10.02%K -24.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 20.80%EV -14.54%E -3.63%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.26%EV -17.96%E -6.53%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.15%EV -8.74%E -4.67%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -15.61%E -3.95%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-07 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.88%EV -12.16%E -6.75%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -15.61%E -3.95%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.85%EV -9.01%E -2.95%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 48.68%EV -13.62%E -7.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 21.81%EV -15.61%E -3.95%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.51%EV -12.89%E -4.41%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -6.79%E -3.55%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -10.50%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.93%EV -12.16%E -6.75%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.95%EV -14.08%E -4.89%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 48.54%EV -13.62%E -7.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.03%EV -16.68%E -4.28%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.43%EV -12.89%E -4.41%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -18.81%E -4.95%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -7.52%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -10.69%E -5.84%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -19.88%E -5.30%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -16.47%E -5.88%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-07 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.98% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.99% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 30.02% | 0.0% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.56% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.89% | 1.4% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.56% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.89% | 1.4% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.56% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.89% | 1.4% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.46% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13% | 2.1% | 2026-03-07 14:55 |