Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wehen Wiesbaden v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 11:30 UTC

Final: Wehen Wiesbaden 2–0 TSG Hoffenheim II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wehen Wiesbaden (Local)

Prediction 52.75%1.90fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -6.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.46%52.85%52.90%54.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.741.751.8062.11%57.50%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV +0.537%
Edge +0.134%
Kelly +0.179%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.35%24.98%25.12%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.504.0030.77%28.11%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.12%4.52fair odd
EV -0.461%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.61%22.17%21.98%24.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.983.954.5030.30%25.14%25.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wehen Wiesbaden (Local): 52.75%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 25.13%; Draw: 22.12%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.537%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -10.33%E -6.08%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV +0.537%E +0.134%K +0.179%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 11:15
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.04%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.82%EV -0.217%E -0.055%K -0.073%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.15%EV -5.55%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.69%EV -8.22%E -4.73%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.69%EV -8.22%E -4.73%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 10:24
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -9.28%E -5.39%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -14.84%E -3.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 11:20
Suprabets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.75%EV -10.86%E -6.43%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 24.62%EV -7.25%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 10:24
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -8.22%E -4.73%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 11:19
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.75%E -5.06%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -0.461%E -0.102%K -0.132%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.06%E -2.81%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 10:00
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.64%E -3.75%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.31%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.42%EV -10.86%E -6.43%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 10:25
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -10.33%E -6.08%K -14.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-16 10:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.94%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -10.77%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.38%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -10.77%E -3.03%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 10:05
LeoVegas🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.05%EV -5.58%E -3.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -6.11%E -3.43%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 11:20
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.75%E -5.06%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 10:25
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 10:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 10:20
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 10:20
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.69%E -4.40%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.63%EV -12.44%E -7.49%K -18.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.40%EV -13.73%E -3.52%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-16 10:25
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.80%EV -11.91%E -7.13%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.69%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-16 10:25
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 51.68%EV -15.08%E -9.37%K -24.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.21%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.11%EV -20.37%E -5.66%K -7.83%G +0.000%20.2%2026-05-16 09:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 50.46%EV -14.55%E -8.98%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.77%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.77%EV -27.00%E -8.18%K -11.74%G +0.000%22.3%2026-05-16 10:25
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.54%EV -14.55%E -8.98%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.19%EV -18.31%E -5.64%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.28%EV -11.52%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-16 10:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%2.3%2026-05-16 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%2.3%2026-05-16 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%2.3%2026-05-16 11:20