Language:English
TSV 1860 München v FC Ingolstadt 04
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TSV 1860 München (Local)
Prediction 41.05%2.44fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.37%41.17%41.10%42.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3048.78%45.70%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit)
Prediction 34.29%2.92fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.799%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.14%34.16%34.25%35.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.672.8541.67%37.32%37.52%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.66%4.05fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%24.66%24.66%27.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.623.603.9233.33%27.61%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV 1860 München (Local): 41.05%; FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit): 34.29%; Draw: 24.66%. For FC Ingolstadt 04 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -5.59%E -2.43%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.52%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-06 12:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -6.00%E -2.62%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.13%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.29%EV -3.33%E -0.848%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 01:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.22%EV -6.41%E -2.81%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.05%EV -5.36%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -6.29%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 12:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.22%EV -6.41%E -2.81%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.05%EV -5.36%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -6.29%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 12:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.41%E -2.81%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.49%EV -8.11%E -3.02%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -8.75%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 11:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.41%E -2.81%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.49%EV -8.11%E -3.02%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -8.75%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 11:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.45%EV -7.23%E -3.20%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -9.14%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.98%E -2.74%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-09 00:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -7.52%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-06 12:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.64%E -3.39%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -9.14%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.29%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-07 16:24 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.97%EV -8.87%E -4.00%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.14%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.71%EV -9.24%E -2.51%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-09 00:22 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -2.28%E -0.799%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -6.29%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -6.29%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-06 08:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -9.14%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -8.75%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-08 12:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -7.52%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 15:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.01%EV -9.14%E -3.45%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 03:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 03:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 03:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 03:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-06 11:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-06 11:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.69%E -4.40%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -10.16%E -3.88%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-06 11:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.41%EV -11.33%E -5.25%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -2.28%E -0.799%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -3.99%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 12:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.75%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-05 15:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.98%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -12.56%E -4.93%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-07 15:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.70%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -14.28%E -5.71%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -11.22%E -3.12%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-06 11:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -11.74%E -5.46%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.28%E -5.71%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-07 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 39.37%EV -13.80%E -6.57%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.07%EV -14.28%E -5.71%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.56%EV -26.01%E -8.67%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 21.0% | 2026-05-07 15:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.99%EV -15.85%E -7.73%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.01%EV -17.71%E -7.38%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.01%EV -13.68%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-05-06 11:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 40.68%EV -15.85%E -7.73%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 34.04%EV -15.99%E -6.53%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -18.62%E -5.64%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 19.9% | 2026-05-06 11:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.19% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.19% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.66% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.24% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10% | 3.7% | 2026-05-09 01:29 |