The School of Odds
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TSV 1860 München v Erzgebirge Aue

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSV 1860 München (Local)

Prediction 48.87%2.05fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.27%48.86%48.69%50.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.861.851.9557.14%53.69%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erzgebirge Aue (Visit)

Prediction 25.10%3.98fair odd
EV +0.419%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.140%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%25.10%25.30%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.603.554.0032.26%27.81%28.17%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%26.04%26.01%27.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.603.7032.26%28.27%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV 1860 München (Local): 48.87%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visit): 25.10%; Draw: 26.02%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.419%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -8.12%E -4.32%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV +0.419%E +0.105%K +0.140%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.32%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -8.12%E -4.32%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV +0.419%E +0.105%K +0.140%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.32%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.42%EV -5.68%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -2.09%E -0.536%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.13%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-03 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.61%E -4.60%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -3.72%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-03 17:45
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-03 17:45
Suprabets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.26%EV -6.11%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.15%EV -9.70%E -2.80%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-03 17:42
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.11%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -10.22%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-03 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-03 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-03 17:40
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -8.37%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -8.37%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -3.72%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-03 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.32%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 17:45
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.32%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 17:48
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -8.12%E -4.32%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-03 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -8.61%E -4.60%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-03 17:45
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.31%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.70%EV -10.88%E -3.06%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:15
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%EV -8.12%E -4.32%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -10.88%E -3.06%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-03 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.13%EV -9.59%E -5.18%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:15
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -6.32%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-03 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -14.12%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-03 17:45
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -4.70%E -2.41%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.28%EV -14.47%E -8.27%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-03 17:45
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.27%EV -12.03%E -6.68%K -15.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.87%EV -22.18%E -7.15%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.87%EV -19.33%E -6.24%K -9.20%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-03 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-03 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-03 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-03 17:45